High Pressure, Low Pressure
Today is starting off with high pressure overhead, but by this evening, a weak low pressure will move in.
Beneath the high, skies are mostly clear and temperatures are cold across the region. Most areas are around zero degrees, but there are a few colder pockets that are well below zero.
As the high treks east, our winds will turn gently to the south. Combined with a morning full of sunshine, the south winds should help temperatures reach the low 20s early this afternoon.
Clouds will move in this afternoon and become thick. Snow will overspread the area from west to east roughly during the 4-6 PM time period. The snow should move in quickly but will have light to moderate rates.
After a couple of hours of steady snow, the snow may become more broken during the second half of the evening and through the overnight. The snow may end as a brief burst early Tuesday morning, especially near and north of the Thruway, close to where the center of the low will pass.
By tomorrow morning, most of the Finger Lakes region should have an inch or two of accumulation. A few higher elevations could manage to get upwards of three inches.
Temperatures tonight will initially dip into the upper teens but will rise to the low and mid 20s shortly thereafter. The temperatures will then mostly hold steady on Tuesday despite west-northwest winds.
Lake effect snow showers will develop Tuesday afternoon. These will drift through the region, with the focal point in the north early on and shifting to the south during the evening hours. This will occur as a cold front moves south through the region.
Snow accumulations on Tuesday and Tuesday evening should be limited to an inch or so, with many areas not even seeing that.
Cold and Rather Quiet
Cold air will move back in Tuesday night, sending temperatures into the single digits for Wednesday morning. Some lake effect clouds and a few flurries will help prevent colder temperatures, though some sub-zero readings in the western Southern Tier, away from the lake effect, are likely.
Lingering flurries will quickly end Wednesday morning and skies will become increasingly sunny. It will be a cold day, though, with highs in the low 10s.
Another cold night with widespread subzero temperatures is likely Wednesday night. Winds will turn to the south during the night, though, leading to some warming after midnight. Still, much of the southern half of the region will start Thursday below zero, while the northern half of the region warms to just above zero.
The south winds will push highs into the mid 20s for Thursday. Skies will be a mix of sun and clouds and no snow is expected. Temperatures will only drop a couple of degrees Thursday night as south winds continue.
A cold front will slowly make its way through on Friday, leading to some flurries. Temperatures will reach the mid 20s for a high, but colder air will move back in by Friday night.
Temperatures over the weekend should be in the mid 10s for highs with nighttime temperatures mostly staying above zero, but not by much.
A milder weather pattern continues to look likely next week with overnight lows mostly near 20 and daytime highs into the 30s.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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Tupper Rd Hill got 4-5 inches last night.
I’m wondering if they keep records of the most sub-zero nights in January. If so, where are we likely to stand as we reach the end of the month?
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
I don’t know of a source that has the data tabulated already, but it can easily be derived. If I can get the time, I can run Ithaca’s numbers and see how we compare, going back to the 1890s. I do know that as recently as January 2014, Ithaca had 11 days with subzero lows. This January has 6 so far, and will probably only get 1..maybe 2 or 3 more at the most.