Warm Air Builds
A large high pressure system is sprawled across the eastern coast of the United States this morning, centered over the Mid-Atlantic region.
A second lobe of high pressure extends back over the Great Lakes. These two systems will merge to our east tonight. Their movement today will cause wind shifts over the Finger Lakes.
To start the day, the Mid-Atlantic high has the upper hand in influencing our weather. Southwest winds have kept lake effect from Ontario to the north, leaving mostly clear skies through the night. This has some areas starting the morning just below zero.
Sunshine should be abundant through the morning before winds turn more northwesterly this afternoon as the Great Lakes high moves in. This wind shift will bring some lake effect clouds into the area. Wayne County could see some snow showers, especially near the lakeshore.
Temperatures will top out in the mid 20s this afternoon before quickly falling back into the 10s this evening as skies clear once again. Winds will go calm early this evening as the high passes overhead, then steadily increase from the south overnight.
Overnight temperatures will begin to rise, and by dawn Wednesday, most areas should be back into the low and mid 20s.
Thin clouds will build in during the predawn hours, limiting the potential sunshine to some filtered sun during the morning hours. Clouds will thicken through the morning.
It will be a breezy day with south winds gusting between 30-40 mph. The strongest gusts will be over the higher elevations. The wind will pump milder air into the region, with highs ranging from the low 40s in the southeastern half of the region to the mid and upper 40s in the northwest.
Cold Front Provides Mild Interruption
South winds Wednesday night will continue to bring warm air in, causing temperatures to remain steady or slightly rise Wednesday night.
Thursday will be cloudy and breezy, though much of the day will see slightly lower wind speeds compared to Wednesday. Rain showers will move in during the afternoon ahead of a cold front. Temperatures will range from the mid 40s in some higher elevations to the low 50s along the Thruway.
The front will intensify Thursday night as it drops southeast through the region. Ahead of the front, south winds will increase again with gusts over 40 mph possible. Temperatures will rise into the low 50s for the southeastern Finger Lakes.
Behind the front, temperatures will fall into the 30s and then 20s. Rain may briefly mix with ice before turning to snow. The front should clear the region before dawn Friday with snow showers quickly winding down Friday morning.
Sunshine will develop for the afternoon Friday, helping hold temperatures in the low and mid 20s before dropping further for Friday night beneath some clear skies. Overnight lows will be in the 5 to 15 degree range, but south winds will kick in again and rise temperatures well into the 10s by Saturday morning.
This wind shift will be ahead of a small system that will bring a few flurries in for Saturday. Accumulations should be minimal. Highs on Saturday will reach the upper 20s.
Warmer air will quickly move back in, with low 40s and sunshine Sunday. Monday has a good shot at reaching the 50s with a mix of sun and clouds. Temperatures should settle in the 40s for the middle of next week, then return to the 30s late in the week and next weekend.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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Christopher G Carey
Can’t thank you enough (and contributed) for your no-nonsense, no-hype forecasts.
How much rain are you predicting for Thursday? That’s a key aspect of the forecast that you seem to leave out.
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Rainfall amounts are still uncertain and I am monitoring them closely…but it looks highly unlikely it will be enough to cause any flooding issues.