Early Week Weather
An area of high pressure is situated just north of the Great Lakes this morning and will slide southeast through the Finger Lakes today.
Poised to the south of this high is a frontal boundary that extends from the northern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic region. This front will bounce back and forth across the region this week, leading to daily weather changes and a variety of conditions.
For today, the high pressure will be in firm control of our weather. Sunshine will mix with some occasional patches of clouds, but no precipitation is expected.
With the high to our northwest until late this afternoon, winds will be from the northwest and north, though with light speeds around just 5 mph.
Nonetheless, these winds will ensure a chilly day with highs mostly in the low and mid 20s. Areas right along the NY-PA state line, especially west of Elmira, will reach into the upper 20s or even near 30 degrees.
The temperature will make a quick dip into the mid 10s this evening with colder pockets in the I-81 corridor. However, winds will turn to the south by midnight and warmer air will move in. By dawn Tuesday, many areas will be in the mid or upper 20s. The I-390 region in the west will push into the low 30s.
A couple of stray flurries overnight will be possible as the frontal boundary lifts north through the region, allowing the warmer air in. No accumulation is expected.
Tuesday will likely be rather cloudy, though some glimpses of sun are not out of the question. Highs will push into the mid 40s for the warmest weather until late next weekend.
Low pressure riding along the front will spread some rain and snow showers into the area during the late afternoon and especially during the evening. A light coating of snow may be possible in some areas.
Later Week Weather
The front will remain overhead on Wednesday, keeping skies cloudy and leading to a variation in temperatures across the area. To the north, mid and upper 30s are most likely. Across the counties that border Pennsylvania, highs may push well into the 40s.
Any slight wobble of the front north or south would, of course, change the temperature distribution.
Another low will move along the front late Wednesday and Wednesday night. This low will be stronger than the Tuesday low. Most of the precipitation will hold off until Wednesday evening, but a few flurries could start to fly in the west before the sun sets.
Snow will fall through the night, followed by some morning lake effect snow showers south of Lake Ontario on Thursday. Total accumulations from the low and the lake effect will be in the 2-4 inch range, though valley locations in the Southern Tier will hold on to warmer air and see just an inch or so.
Blustery northwest winds will gust to around 30 mph on Thursday, causing areas of blowing and drifting snow. The wind will also keep temperatures down.
As the low passes by, Wednesday night temperatures will fall to the upper 10s. A further drop to the mid 10s will take place during the daytime hours Thursday morning. The afternoon may gain a couple degrees back, but most areas will fail to reach 20 degrees.
Thursday night will also be cold, with lows down around or just above zero. A few pockets of subzero temperatures are possible. However, daytime temperatures on Friday will rebound to the low 30s with a mix of sun and clouds.
The front will push back north on Saturday with snow and possibly some rain or mixed precipitation. The front will take its time moving through, but once it does, warm air will flood into the region. Highs should at least reach the low 50s on Sunday with a few showers about.
Temperatures may briefly poke into the 60s on Monday before cooler air returns, but it is a bit too early yet to count on that for sure.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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