A strong area of low pressure over Michigan this morning has warm air moving into the region on strong winds.
Southerly winds gusting over 40 mph at times will continue this morning and into the afternoon out ahead of the cold front associated with the low.
Temperatures are already pushing into the 50s and will top out in the 65-70 degree range this afternoon. There will be some dependency in the temperatures on the amount of sunshine and timing of the rain associated with the cold front.
The sunshine today looks as though it will be quite limited and rain showers, while scattered this morning, may become more widespread by the early afternoon. Both factors would help limit temperatures slightly.
As the showers move in sometime between the midday hours and mid-afternoon hours, a few embedded thunderstorms may develop. Lightning will be limited, but the internal processes of the thunderstorms may be able to tap into the strong wind fields and produce some localized damaging wind gusts.
The chances for thunderstorms and severe weather will be highest in the far southeastern Finger Lakes, with a more significant threat staying further away in Pennsylvania.
The cold front itself will cross the area around and just after sunset. Winds will decrease as they shift to the west-southwest. The loss of daytime heating will allow temperatures to slip into the 50s early this evening, but the cold front will then send temperatures quickly into the 40s.
By Friday morning, mid and upper 30s will be widespread across the area. Temperatures may gain a couple degrees by midday, but will fall back into the 30s during the afternoon.
Scattered showers will be possible this evening and overnight with a better chance for precipitation during the daytime hours Friday. Precipitation type is a bit uncertain early on and may be a rain and snow mix. During the afternoon, mostly snow will fall.
Gusty winds will be in place again, coming from the northwest with gusts to 40 mph. The blowing snow may make for low visibility at times, but temperatures should stay above freezing, limiting accumulations to grassy surfaces until late in the day.
Weekend Weather and Next Week
Some lake effect snow will persist into Friday night with isolated light accumulations. Some rural roads may get sloppy. By Saturday morning, though, skies should be mostly clear.
Temperatures will start the day in the mid 20s and rise to the mid 40s for the afternoon. Clouds will gradually move in and replace the sunshine.
A small weather system will swing in for Sunday. Snow showers will be possible early on before they mix with and turn to rain showers. A little more snow may fall late in the day as temperatures cool. Morning lows will be in the mid 30s, afternoon highs around 40, and nighttime temperatures around 30.
Quiet weather will move in for Monday and Tuesday. Skies will be a mix of clouds and some sun, but no precipitation is expected.
Temperatures will be close to the climatological averages for Monday, reaching a high in the upper 40s. Tuesday looks a bit warm with highs in the mid 50s.
Another system will be possible by the middle of next week. Some scattered showers are expected on Wednesday. This does not look like anything too significant at this time.
Temperatures may take a small dip with this system but should remain near or above 50 degrees into late next week. A brief cooldown is possible for the following weekend. Beyond that, the weather pattern will shift to favor above average temperatures as we head into the middle of April.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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