Well Above Average Temperatures
A change in the weather pattern will take place this week with a persistent high pressure system off the southeastern coast of the US and an active storm track through the middle of the nation.
Both of these factors will favor above average temperatures in the Finger Lakes throughout the week.
However, clear skies and calm winds last night have temperatures this morning off to a chilly start. Sunny skies this morning and a developing south wind will help temperatures rise quickly though. Wind speeds should stay near or under 10 mph.
Clouds will increase later this morning and into the afternoon. Some sunshine will still shine through and poke out between the clouds, especially through the early afternoon.
Many areas will push into the 60s today with a few higher elevations in Central New York sticking to the upper 50s. Mid 60s will be possible in and around Rochester and Syracuse.
A stray shower or two may become possible by the early evening. Rain will increase after sunset and continue off and on through the night. Most of the precipitation should move out by or shortly after sunrise Tuesday. Overnight temperatures will settle in the mid 40s.
Skies will turn sunny again for much of Tuesday morning and the first part of the afternoon. Some new clouds will work in late in the day, but these will mostly be thin clouds that still allow some sunshine. Highs will be similar to today with low and mid 60s. Winds will be from the northwest.
Temperatures will take another step forward Wednesday and Thursday. Highs should be into the 70s, and a few places could approach 80 degrees, especially on Wednesday.
There will be some scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to dodge. Right now, the best chances for precipitation look to be early Wednesday morning, again late Wednesday afternoon, and Thursday during the midday or early afternoon hours.
Thunderstorms look most likely with the Thursday precipitation as a cold front moves through. Afternoon temperatures will drop back into the 50s following the front.
Transitioning Back to Below Average Temperatures
Temperatures will moderate behind the front on Thursday but will not immediately turn chilly.
Friday will still be plenty warm, just not quite as much so as Wednesday and early Thursday. Look for afternoon highs to reach the mid 60s after morning lows in the 30s.
Sunshine early in the day will be replaced by some afternoon clouds and perhaps a few showers.
Saturday will be another step back with highs mainly in the upper 50s. Skies will be a mix of sun and clouds with perhaps a few stray showers around.
Easter Sunday will also have a mix of sun and clouds and a chance for a few stray showers. By then, the warm weather will be gone, with morning lows around 30 degrees and afternoon highs in the mid 40s. Both of those are 5-10 degrees below the seasonal averages.
A weather system will likely impact the area early next week. Most of what falls will be rain, but some snow is not out of the question. This will be something to watch over the coming week.
While accumulating snow is far from impossible in late April, it is harder to come by and the models are even harder to trust with snowfall more than a couple of days in advance. Be wary of hype.
Regardless, temperatures will remain depressed throughout next week with highs most days stuck in the 40s.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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