Rainy for Some
Low pressure will move through the Ohio River Valley today and tomorrow while a strong high pressure system over eastern Canada blocks its northward progression.
The edge of the precipitation shield associated with the low will just make it into the Finger Lakes region, but only for the southern parts.
Based on current radar and model trends early this morning, most of the Finger Lakes should remain dry until the late morning. Rain showers are mostly contained to areas near the Pennsylvania border. However, to the west over Ohio, rain is making more northward progress.
This batch of rain will move in during the midday hours and should continue for much of the afternoon. The edge of the rain may make it as far north as Penn Yan and Cortland. Getting much further north than that may be too tall of an order.
For areas south of the immediate edge, the rain will fall steadily this afternoon and perhaps into the early evening. The rain will then retreat south, though on and off showers will continue to be possible across the Southern Tier.
Meanwhile, to the north, it will be a dry but cloudy day. The lack of rain should allow temperatures to rise into the upper 50s and low 60s. Highs where it is rainy will be held to the low and mid 50s. Tonight, temperatures everywhere should settle into the mid 40s.
Rain showers will still be possible on Saturday, but should generally be further south than today. It is possible that only areas near the state line will see rain, but time will tell once again how the rain evolves.
Like today, where it does not rain, it will still be plenty cloudy. Temperatures will remain a bit on the cool side, with highs mostly in the mid 50s with a few pockets of upper 50s.
Winds today will be light from the east with speeds around 5 mph. Tonight, the wind will turn more northeasterly with speeds increasing to 5-10 mph. Those winds will remain persistent throughout Saturday.
Sunny and Dry
Clouds will clear out Saturday night as the low pressure system departs and high pressure builds in. The high pressure will become a dominating, consistent force in our weather for much of the next week.
Sunday will be a fine day for Mother’s Day with ample sunshine throughout the day. Temperatures will top out in the low 60s, just a couple degrees shy of the seasonal averages. Northeast winds will continue with speeds under 10 mph.
There will be virtually no change in the weather pattern for Monday with high pressure in no hurry to move along. Conditions will therefore be very similar to Sunday, just a touch warmer.
Sunny skies will persist throughout the day, northeast winds will blow at 5-10 mph, and afternoon highs will top out in the mid 60s.
By Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, the steady northeast wind will break down, leading to light and variable winds. Nonetheless, high pressure will still be in firm control of our weather.
Mostly clear skies will continue on Tuesday with just a few stray clouds dotting the sky on Wednesday and Thursday. As the northwest wind breaks down, temperatures will start to climb.
Highs on Tuesday will be around 70 degrees, while Wednesday reaches the low 70s. Thursday will be warmer yet, with highs into the upper 70s.
All during this time, the atmosphere will be very dry. Daily relative humidity values will run just 25-35 percent during the afternoon. With new vegetation greening up, our brush fire season is winding down. But the dry air and sunshine will raise at least some concern, and the annual burn ban for NY State continues through next week.
Late in the week, moisture will increase as temperatures continue to climb. Highs in the 80s are a decent bet for next weekend with dewpoints possibly making a run at the 60s. It should stay dry, though rain chances will start to be introduced either by Sunday or early the following week.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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