After cool, cloudy Thursday, weather turns hot and stormy for the weekend

finger lakes weather forecast thursday may 19 2022 cloudy cool warming trend weekend thunderstorms
Hot temperatures this weekend could lead to thunderstorms, especially on Sunday as a cold front moves in. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Warming Kicks Off Friday

A weather disturbance will pass along Lake Ontario this morning as it rotates around an area of low pressure north of the Upper Great Lakes.

So far, most of the rain associated with this disturbance is over Lake Ontario or Canada. However, scattered showers will be possible at times further south over the Finger Lakes through the morning and midday hours. A few rumbles of thunder will also be possible towards midday, especially over the southeastern quadrant of the region.

The rain chances will diminish this afternoon as the disturbance heads east into New England. Sunshine should increase during the closing hours of the day.

Southwest winds this morning will turn to the northwest this afternoon, with speeds increasing to around 10 mph. Most areas should see top gusts near or under 30 mph.

The clouds, showers, and eventual northwest winds will keep temperatures on the cooler side once again today. Most areas will end up in the mid 60s. Low 60s will be possible near Lake Ontario and in the hills of Central New York. The Southern Tier, where the rain chances are lowest and the sun should come out first, could approach 70 degrees.

Winds will become calm this evening as high pressure moves overhead with some clearing skies. Overnight, the winds will turn to the south and southeast as the high shifts eastward.

Temperatures will fall to the low 50s and upper 40s overnight but should rise to the low and mid 50s prior to dawn.

After sunrise, south and southwest winds will increase to 15-20 mph. Gusts of 35-45 mph are likely, pumping warm air into the region.

With a mix of sun and clouds, highs Friday should reach the 80s for most. Higher elevations may stick to the upper 70s. Mid 80s are likely in the northern Finger Lakes.

There may be a few showers to dodge on Friday, though the extent of the rain is uncertain, as it partially depends on thunderstorm development today across Missouri.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday may 19 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Hot, Stormy Weekend

Saturday continues to look like a very hot day for this time of the year, though the chances for afternoon showers and storms may keep temperatures a touch below where they would be with a dry forecast. Still, many areas should be into the low 90s and a few isolated locations could sneak into the mid 90s. Upper 80s are more likely in the higher elevations.

The atmosphere will lack a well-defined trigger for thunderstorm development on Saturday. However, lake breezes, local topography, and subtle perturbations from upstream thunderstorms the previous day can serve as influences to pop a few showers and storms.

Any thunderstorms that do manage to develop on Saturday will have the potential to produce localized strong winds and perhaps some hail.

Both Friday night and Saturday night will be very warm. Temperatures will vary more on Friday night, with lows by Saturday morning ranging from the mid 60s across the Southern Tier to around 70  degrees in the northwestern Finger Lakes and near Syracuse. Saturday night should have widespread mid 60s.

On Sunday, the trigger that is lacking on Saturday will be present as a strong cold front moves into the region. The winds aloft are modest for storm organization, but there will be plenty of fuel for thunderstorm development and a favorable setup for damaging wind gusts and possibly hail.

With the front not expected until the afternoon, temperatures Sunday could again flirt with 90 degrees in some areas. An afternoon frontal passage will also be the prime time for a severe thunderstorm threat.

As the front moves through Sunday evening, temperatures will take a dive to near 50 degrees by Monday morning. Morning showers will be possible, followed by some sun late in the day. North winds will ensure temperatures stick to the low and perhaps mid 60s.

Tuesday looks to have the best shot at being completely dry next week. Unsettled weather is expected later in the week, with temperatures mostly in the low and mid 70s.

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday may 19 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.