4th of July Weekend forecast has plenty of dry, warm weather

finger lakes weather forecast friday july 1 2022 sun clouds thunderstorms 4th of july weekend forecast
The best chance for rain will be overnight Friday night and into very early Saturday morning as widespread showers and thunderstorms move through. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Rain Chances Friday-Early Saturday

A cold front will drop south through the Finger Lakes tonight, bringing some rain and thunder to an otherwise quiet holiday weekend.

Out ahead of the front, southwest winds will strengthen this morning. Wind speeds will be over 10 mph, but not quite to 15 mph. Gusts will approach but mainly stay under 30 mph.

Skies will be a mix of sun and clouds. Both thin clouds high in the atmosphere and fair weather cumulus clouds are expected. At times, it may be more cloudy than not, especially as we head later into the afternoon.

High temperatures will push into the upper 80s and low 90s throughout the region. Dewpoints will remain in the 50s and low 60s, so the heat index will not be much of a factor.

The high-resolution, short-term models have backed off the thunderstorm development before sunset, but a stray shower or storm cannot be totally ruled out. The same goes for the early evening hours. Any storms that do fire during this time could have some brief gusty winds or a little small hail.

After 10 PM, the chances for rain and thunder will increase. Precipitation should be rather widespread after midnight tonight, but rainfall amounts will not make much of a dent in the recent overall dryness. Still, it will make gardens happy for a day or two. Actual amounts will vary greatly based on where thunderstorms move, but will mostly be under a half-inch.

Some showers may linger into early Saturday, especially across the Southern Tier. Over the course of the morning, skies should brighten, and the afternoon should be mostly sunny.

Temperatures will be mild tonight with overnight lows in the mid 60s. Highs on Saturday should mostly be near or just above 80 degrees, though some higher elevations will stick to the upper 70s.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday july 1 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Sunday and Beyond

High pressure will build in for Sunday and the 4th on Monday. Both days should have a good deal of sunshine and warm temperatures.

A steady northwest wind will blow on Sunday, helping to hold the temperatures in check. Afternoon highs will be close to the seasonal averages in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. A few areas will probably sneak just above 80.

The chances for rain on Monday have all but disappeared from the models. The northwest wind will break down, at least early in the day. Temperatures will respond by rising into the mid 80s.

The weather becomes more uncertain after Monday. Several small weather systems will move near or over the region, and preexisting thunderstorm complexes accompanying those systems could move through the region.

Right now, Tuesday and Thursday seem to have a higher chance for rain than Wednesday or Friday, but it remains highly uncertain.

Temperatures will depend on the presence of clouds and rain and the progression of these systems, but should overall stay mild with highs in the 80s.

The potential for unsettled weather and near average temperatures will persist into next weekend and the week beyond.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday july 1 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.