Severe thunderstorms possible Sunday afternoon and evening

finger lakes weather forecast sunday july 24 2022 severe thunderstorms
The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Finger Lakes in its Level 3- Enhanced category. This is the third Enhanced risk of 2022.

A severe thunderstorm event is possible across the Finger Lakes region this afternoon and evening with multiple rounds of severe weather possible.

This is an evolving situation that still has uncertainties at play.

A large area of showers and thunderstorms over Michigan will weaken as it lifts north of the Finger Lakes by the early and mid afternoon.

Sunshine this morning will be replaced by clouds associated with this area, but temperatures and humidity should rise quickly this morning.

Thunderstorms will be possible in the Finger Lakes by the afternoon hours, with multiple clusters or line segments possible, continuing into the evening.

Damaging winds will be the primary concern, including localized intense microbursts. There is also a tornado threat, especially in any storm cells that stay isolated from other thunderstorms. Not only are microbursts more likely than tornadoes, but they can have winds that are just as strong as a tornado, but over a larger area.

Given that this severe threat is evolving partially in response to the thunderstorms that developed last night, there is still a higher than average degree of uncertainty. Factors contributing to this include how the cloud cover and left over storms move, when they arrive, and how they impact our heating today.

Also uncertain is the timing of storms, and the coverage over the area at different parts of the day. While the mid and late afternoon is the most likely time for severe storms, they could pop up as early as midday. How long the severe threat lingers into the evening is also uncertain.

A live blog will likely be necessary later today. This will provide you with the latest information, including radar images, warnings, and my analysis of the setup and individual storms.

Stay Tuned for more information and/or a live blog late this morning or midday.

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Major weather events require a huge amount of time and energy, and no small amount of stress. Weekend events can be especially difficult and often require me to change my personal plans, as is the case today.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.

2 Responses

  1. Sara

    Hi Drew,
    I was lucky to attend your Lodi presentation last week. You are a great speaker and explained everything so well. And I appreciate your personalized, no-hype forecasting very much. We are lucky to have you in our region!
    Kind regards,

    • Meteorologist Drew Montreuil

      Thank you so much, Sara! I am really glad you were able to come to the talk!