A severe thunderstorm event is possible across the Finger Lakes region this afternoon and evening with multiple rounds of severe weather possible.
This is an evolving situation that still has uncertainties at play.
A large area of showers and thunderstorms over Michigan will weaken as it lifts north of the Finger Lakes by the early and mid afternoon.
Sunshine this morning will be replaced by clouds associated with this area, but temperatures and humidity should rise quickly this morning.
Thunderstorms will be possible in the Finger Lakes by the afternoon hours, with multiple clusters or line segments possible, continuing into the evening.
Damaging winds will be the primary concern, including localized intense microbursts. There is also a tornado threat, especially in any storm cells that stay isolated from other thunderstorms. Not only are microbursts more likely than tornadoes, but they can have winds that are just as strong as a tornado, but over a larger area.
Given that this severe threat is evolving partially in response to the thunderstorms that developed last night, there is still a higher than average degree of uncertainty. Factors contributing to this include how the cloud cover and left over storms move, when they arrive, and how they impact our heating today.
Also uncertain is the timing of storms, and the coverage over the area at different parts of the day. While the mid and late afternoon is the most likely time for severe storms, they could pop up as early as midday. How long the severe threat lingers into the evening is also uncertain.
A live blog will likely be necessary later today. This will provide you with the latest information, including radar images, warnings, and my analysis of the setup and individual storms.
Stay Tuned for more information and/or a live blog late this morning or midday.
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