Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the midday to mid-afternoon hours today as a cold front approaches the region.
Before any storms arrive, skies will be mixed through the morning hours. Breaks of sunshine between the clouds will team up with southwest winds to bring temperatures up from an already mild start. By the time storms arrive, temperatures should be in the low or even mid 80s.
This will produce a modest set up for thunderstorms by the midday hours. Storms will grow from a few stray cells over Lake Erie early this morning to a small line segment over the central and eastern Finger Lakes.
This small line could have some brief periods of strong winds and some isolated wind damage is possible. A few severe thunderstorm warnings may be needed, and a severe thunderstorm watch is not out of the question for the eastern half of the region.
As a refresher, a warning is a short-term, localized alert when severe thunderstorms are ongoing. A watch is a large-scale, long term alert to indicate that severe thunderstorms are possible over the region.
This small line of storms will be quick moving. While it may rain hard for a few minutes, rain amounts are expected to be low. There is still a chance that some areas, especially over the western half of the region, will not see any rain today.
By 3 or 4 PM, most of the activity should be off to the east. The rest of the afternoon will be mostly dry, with just a stray shower here or there. This will continue into the evening hours and possibly the very early morning. Most areas will not see any additional rain during this period, though.
Temperatures will drop in the rain-cooled air following any storms but should bounce back to the low and mid 80s late this afternoon. Overnight lows will still be mild in the low and mid 60s.
Tomorrow should be a sunny day with small fair weather clouds, as usual. Temperatures will remain in the low 80s, but humidity levels will be much lower than today. West and northwest winds will blow at around 10 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph.
Sunny Weekend, Hot Next Week
High pressure will keep control of our weather through the weekend and into Monday. As the high travels east, temperatures will go on a warming trend.
To start, the high will be to the west on Saturday. This will keep northwest winds in place, with speeds again around 10 mph with 20-25 mph gusts. Like Friday, skies will be a mix of sunshine and fair weather clouds with highs in the low 80s.
The high will be nearly overhead on Sunday, leading to light winds. These will come from the south much of the day, but a lake breeze of Lake Ontario will turn winds to the north over the northern tier later in the afternoon.
Highs will build off the southerly flow and sunshine. Urban areas will push towards the upper 80s with mid 80s elsewhere. Some low 80s will be possible in higher terrain and along the shore of Lake Ontario.
The southerly flow will increase on Monday, pushing highs to near 90 degrees across the area. Again, the weather will be dry with a mix of sun and clouds.
A weather system continues to look possible on Tuesday. Like today, conditions appear to be modest for rain and thunderstorms, so it will likely be a hit-or-miss situation. Rain totals will probably remain low, even for areas that see rain. It is early, though, so there is time for this to change, but the models seem to be trending drier if anything.
Temperatures will rise again immediately behind this system with at least a chance for some impressive heat. Thursday looks to be the hottest day of the week, if not the summer, as long as it remains dry. If it does, highs could be well into the 90s.
A cold front will move through at some point late in the week, breaking the heat for the weekend and the following week. The weather pattern behind that cold front does not look quite as dry, but uncertainty is, of course, very high that far out.