A steady southerly flow between high pressure off the New England coast and low pressure moving into the Upper Midwest will continue to push heat and humidity into the area.
Skies are starting the day clear across the Finger Lakes and will remain sunny until fair-weather clouds begin to bubble up later this morning. Even after that, there will be plenty of sunshine deep into the afternoon.
The south winds will blow at speeds near 10 mph with gusts around 25 mph. The wind and the sun will push temperatures into the low 90s and upper 80s while dewpoints settle in the mid and upper 60s.
Heat Advisories are in effect for many counties, with mainly the Southern Tier and Cortland and Wyoming counties left out of the advisories. Heat index values over 95 degrees are expected.
Late this afternoon, a piece of atmospheric energy will lift northeast across Lake Ontario and into Canada. Some trailing energy will interact with hot and humid air to develop some thunderstorms over the western Finger Lakes.
These storms will dissipate as they move east this evening, and many areas east of Cayuga Lake will see little to no rain. The northwestern quadrant of the region, roughly north and west of Geneva, will have the best shot at seeing a thunderstorm late this afternoon or early this evening.
Another wave of energy may touch off more showers and storms early Tuesday morning. The clouds, along with continuing south winds, will keep nighttime temperatures in the mid and upper 60s.
A few scattered showers will continue Tuesday morning, but the rain should be pretty hit-or-miss through noon. During the afternoon, a cold front will move through the region with widespread rain and thunderstorms.
There is a bit of uncertainty where the primary line of storms develops, and some of the heavier thunderstorms may not get going until they are to our east. Nonetheless, a secondary line of showers and some thunder is expected, so most areas should see rain tomorrow.
There is a small chance for some severe thunderstorms as well, particularly if the first, primary line develops further west. Given the uncertainty, the eastern half of the region is the most favored for some strong thunderstorm winds. A large outbreak of severe weather is not expected.
Temperatures on Tuesday will depend on the morning showers and clouds and the timing of the afternoon front and rain. A brief spike into the 80s is possible, especially in the east, before temperatures retreat to the 70s.
Showers will be possible on Wednesday, especially in the morning southeast of Lake Ontario as some lake enhancement kicks in. Some sun is more likely for the afternoon with highs in the low and mid 70s.
Another front will push through early Thursday with some more stray showers. A steady northwest wind behind this front will hold temperatures in the mid and upper 60s.
Mostly dry and sunny weather is expected for the holiday weekend as high pressure builds in. Temperatures will push back into the 70s on Friday and 80s on Saturday. A cold front may bring a few stray showers Sunday, returning temperatures to the 70s for the second half of the Labor Day weekend.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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