Labor Day Rain
Low pressure moving along a stalled-out frontal boundary will bring more rain into the Finger Lakes today, especially for the Southern Tier.
Widespread showers are across the region early Monday morning. On and off rain will continue through the morning with a few embedded downpours.
Gradually, the axis of the rain will shift southward this afternoon while downpours become more common. Locally heavy rain is expected across the southern Finger Lakes and especially the Southern Tier this afternoon. Further north, showers will be more sporadic and mainly light.
There is no dividing line between heavy rain and lighter showers. It will be a gradual, moving gradient. As such, pinpointing the exact weather at a given location and at a specific time is far beyond the possibility of this blog post. As a general rule, the further south you are, the longer and harder it will rain.
This evening, the rain will continue to move south and east, exiting most of the region. A few more downpours will be possible from about Bath eastward. Steuben, Chemung, and Tioga counties are under flash flood watches with locally over two inches of rain falling. Rain amounts will fall off to the north and west, but much of the Finger Lakes should see between one-quarter and three-quarters of additional rainfall.
Temperatures today will not move much, rising to a high in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. After sunset, temperatures will slowly fall back towards the low 60s. Areas of fog will be possible tonight, especially where it rains hard.
Winds will be nearly calm today with the front nearby. What wind there is will come in with an easterly component, eventually ending up from the northeast as the front sinks further south.
The Rest of the Week
While steady rain will move out of the picture as the low pressure departs, the frontal boundary will still be nearby into the middle of the week. That will keep some scattered showers in the forecast.
The best chance for showers will come tomorrow, Tuesday. Clouds will likely be thick throughout the day with occasional spits of light rain. It should be much less rainy than today, and individual showers should not last too long.
On Wednesday, the main chance for rain will be a few stray showers in the morning hours. Some sun will be possible later in the day. Thursday has the most uncertain rain chances with a few stray showers possible, but a dry day is also a possibility.
Temperatures will not rise much again tomorrow with highs hovering around 70 degrees. Wednesday should push into the low 70s, while mid 70s are more likely Thursday.
By Friday, highs should be near 80 degrees. Skies will be sunny, and rain is not expected. Much of Saturday looks ok, too, with some sun and highs around 80 degrees.
However, late in the day, another weather system will start to slowly approach from the west. This may bring in some showers before the day is done. Confidence is low in the timing of the rain this far out, though.
Rain chances will increase into Sunday and there is at least a chance for more widespread, heavy rain into early next week. Obviously, the confidence is low at this point. A generally unsettled weather pattern does look likely through the middle-third of the month, though.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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