Thunderstorms Monday with some heavy downpours, blustery winds

finger lakes weather forecast monday september 19 2022 low pressure showers thunderstorms
Widespread rain and thunderstorms are likely today, especially in the midday and first half of the afternoon. A few storms could be heavy and strong. [Photo by Nanci McCraine]

Low Pressure

An area of low pressure will pass by to the north today, bringing widespread rain and thunderstorms to the region.

Several rounds of precipitation will be possible today, though the midday and early afternoon hours are the prime window for showers and storms.

A few showers dot the region this morning as an initial wave of energy moves through. This activity may increase through the mid-morning hours, but most areas will see light or no rain.

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A larger, more intense area of rain is moving across southern Ontario, Lake Erie, and Ohio early this morning. This will move into our region during the late morning and early afternoon, intensifying as it arrives. Some of the thunderstorms could have heavy downpours and some strong winds. An instance or two of isolated wind damage is not out of the question.

This batch should move east during the 2-4 PM timeframe. A few more isolated showers and storms will be possible during the late afternoon, but most areas will probably not see additional daytime rain after the main batch.

Temperatures will peak near or just above 70 degrees during the late morning or midday hours. A few places may sneak into the mid 70s if they manage some prolonged sunshine, but clouds will be more plentiful than sun.

Non-thunderstorm winds will be from the southwest at under 10 mph. Tonight, the wind will turn more westerly with speeds around 5 mph.

Scattered showers will be possible through the night and into Tuesday morning, especially over the northeastern quadrant of the region. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s.

After the morning showers end Tuesday morning, sunshine should increase during the afternoon. Despite northwest winds near or just over 10 mph, afternoon highs should make it back to around 70 degrees.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday september 19 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Cold Front Brings… Cold

Much of Wednesday will be a quiet, mild day. Sunshine through the first part of the day will take morning temperatures in the low and mid 50s and turn them into highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. An increase in humidity will also take place, with dewpoints rising through the 50s and into the 60s late.

Thunderstorms will be possible late in the afternoon and into the evening hours. There are decent parameters for severe weather if the storms can arrive while the daytime heating is strong. As such, the best chance for severe weather looks to be over western areas, but it is something to watch across the entire region.

The cold front responsible for the thunderstorms will move through Wednesday night. Wrap-around moisture behind the front will lead to a showery Thursday, especially in the afternoon. Highs will only make it to the mid 60s.

Cold air will further entrench itself Thursday night with lows dropping to the 40-45 degree range. Any clearing of the skies could send areas into the 30s.

Friday may have some morning showers before dry air takes over. Steady northwest winds will work to keep high temperatures only in the mid and upper 50s.

Cloud cover is a question Friday night and will have an impact on how cold it gets. If skies clear, pockets of frost could become a concern. Even if skies are cloudier, expect lows under 45 degrees and probably a degree or two colder than Thursday night.

Clouds and some sun will be possible on Saturday with a chance for a few showers by Sunday. Widespread rain looks possible next Monday. Temperatures should warm back towards 70 degrees by Sunday, but much of next week looks to have highs in the 60s.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday september 19 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.