A small bubble of high pressure is located over the Ohio Valley this morning, sandwiched between lows over New England and the northern Plains.
Some moisture wrapping around the New England low will brush the northeastern portions of the Finger Lakes this morning with a small chance for a few stray showers. And while the clouds partially broke up overnight, once a little daytime heating kicks in, this moisture should cause clouds to increase throughout the region.
The clouds will then take their time eroding away this afternoon. Eventually, though, clearing will take hold from southwest to northeast, and the day should end with a fair bit of sunshine.
A steady northwest wind will blow between the high and the low with speeds near or just over 10 mph throughout the day. Top gusts will be over 25 mph, but less than 30 mph. The clouds and winds will keep temperatures in check with afternoon highs mostly in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.
The wind will die off this evening as the high pressure passes by, and skies will remain or become totally clear. Temperatures will be quick to fall into the low and mid 50s, but the freefall will stop after midnight as a light south wind picks up.
The focus on Wednesday will be late-day thunderstorms as the low from the northern Plains tracks into southeastern Canada.
After dry, sunny, and mild weather for much of the day, showers and thunderstorms will move in from the west and northwest late in the afternoon or early in the evening. The timing of the storms, and their resultant intensity, is still somewhat uncertain.
The setup for severe weather is greater than we have seen probably since late July. On the high end of possibilities would be a squall line with sporadic damaging winds. On the lower end would be a nighttime event of rain, embedded thunder, and a few stronger wind gusts.
The earlier in the day the storms can arrive, the more potent the severe threat will be. Even storms near or slightly after sunset will still be capable of severe weather, though.
High temperatures tomorrow will mostly be in the upper 70s and low 80s. A few warmer and cooler pockets may end up in the mid 80s or mid 70s, respectively. This is most likely near Rochester, warm, and in the highest elevations, cool.
The storms late Wednesday will be out ahead of the parent cold front, which will slide through during the overnight hours with additional rain. Like the storms, there is some uncertainty about the exact timing of the front, which will have an impact on the low temperatures Thursday morning. Mid 50s seem most likely at this time.
Thursday will start off dry, but showers will increase and become widespread during the afternoon. Blustery northwest winds of 10-15 mph and gusts around 30 mph will help push cool air into the region. Look for afternoon highs in the low 60s.
Skies will remain cloudy with showers through Thursday night as cold air continues to flood in. The clouds and showers will keep overnight lows mostly in the low 40s.
Showers will wind down Friday morning and the sun should increase for the afternoon. High temperatures will only manage to reach the mid 50s, making it the coolest day in the Finger Lakes since late April. Winds will remain blustery from the northwest.
Frost may become a localized concern Friday night into Saturday morning as temperatures dip a few degrees cooler than Thursday night. Pockets of mid and upper 30s will be likely across the Southern Tier and into Central New York in the typically colder areas. Even the warmer immediate lakeshore areas will drop below 45 degrees.
Saturday will remain cool, but a bit warmer than Friday. With a mix of sun and clouds and lighter northwest winds, high temperatures should crawl back above 60 degrees, but probably not by much. Sunday should add a few more degrees with highs in the upper 60s. A few places may even hit 70 degrees.
Late Sunday, the next weather system will roll in with some rain showers. Monday looks to be a rainy day, and the rain may linger into Tuesday as well. Temperatures will begin to fall again, with low and mid 60s Monday, and highs near 60 or in the 50s for the rest of next week.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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