An area of low pressure is located over the eastern Great Lakes and will only gradually meander to the east.
As the low spins, bundles of atmospheric energy will rotate around the low, bringing waves of showers to the Finger Lakes and lake effect rain downwind of the Great Lakes.
Between waves of showers, breaks in the clouds will allow for some periods of sunshine. That is where we find ourselves to start our work week, with little to no rain in the immediate Finger Lakes region and some early sunshine.
However, to the west, there is a batch of showers, enhanced by and along the shore of Lake Erie. Some of these showers will track east through the Finger Lakes this morning.
Additional showers will then be possible through the afternoon as some daytime heating, lake effect, and influences from the low all play a role in shower development. With southwest winds, the best chance for rain will extend from Lake Erie northeastward.
Still, the rain this afternoon will be on and off, hit or miss. Between the showers, some sun will be possible. Like yesterday, it should not be a washout of a day. A few rumbles of thunder may be possible, but they should be few and far between.
The wind will be blustery, with speeds of 10-15 mph and gusts of 25-35 mph. While from the southwest, it will not be an overly warm wind with highs generally in the low 60s.
Tonight, the shower activity will diminish and retreat to the shore of Lake Erie. Temperatures across the Southern Tier will drop to the mid 40s, while further north, upper 40s and low 50s are more likely.
Tuesday will be similar to today with the low only a couple hundred miles further east. Rain showers will be on and off, mixing with breaks of sun. The afternoon will have the highest chance for rain thanks to the extra help from daytime heating.
The wind will be a touch lighter tomorrow but will still gust to 25 mph at times. By then, cool air will be wrapping all the way around the low and moving in on the southwest winds. Look for afternoon highs mostly in the upper 50s.
By Tuesday night and early Wednesday, the low will pick up speed as it moves to the east. Winds will shift to the west, then northwest.
This will lead to an increase in lake effect rain showers off Lake Ontario. This should begin Tuesday night and continue at least until Wednesday morning. There is some uncertainty about how long the showers will persist on Wednesday, and there is at least a chance for showers to linger into the afternoon.
Wind gusts should stay under 25 mph on Wednesday, and some sun will be possible between showers, especially in the afternoon if the showers begin to dry up early.
The northwest winds will continue to push temperatures down, with highs in the mid 50s.
Some lake effect clouds and a few spits of rain will be possible Wednesday night into very early Thursday, which should help keep overnight temperatures in the 40s. Skies will brighten on Thursday as dry air and high pressure build in.
Temperatures on Thursday will top out in the mid 50s. A cold night is possible, especially if skies stay clear and winds become nearly calm. Lows in the 30s and lower 40s are currently expected.
On Friday, I mentioned that trouble was brewing in the tropics with a new Tropical Depression. I expected it to be named Hermine, but a small system off the coast of Africa developed quicker than expected and stole that name away from the Caribbean system. Hermine, for the record, lasted only about 24 hours before dissipating.
Instead of Hermine, all eyes are on what is now Hurricane Ian. Ian is expected to undergo rapid intensification today, going from a minimal hurricane this morning to a category 4 storm tomorrow. Thankfully, weakening is expected at an almost equal pace before Ian reaches Florida Thursday. Though, that is not to say that Florida will not be seriously impacted by wind, storm surge, and flooding.
The remains of Ian are expected to slow down and linger in the southeastern United States into the weekend. Still, some clouds out ahead of Ian may make their way this far north as early as later Friday or Saturday.
Rain showers may also arrive this weekend, but could hold off until early next week. Either way, it does not look like a prolonged, heavy rain event will result in our area.
Temperatures look like they will moderate by the weekend, with highs pushing back into the 60s, even if clouds and showers do make their way into our area.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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