Sunny, warmer weather takes over in the Finger Lakes

finger lakes weather forecast friday october 21 2022 sunny high pressure weekend warm up
High pressure will keep skies mostly sunny through Saturday while providing south winds for a rapid warm-up. [Photo by Wendy Montreuil]

Rapid Warm-Up

A large area of high pressure stretches from the Gulf of Mexico to the coast of New England this morning and will take over as the dominant feature in our weather for the next few days.
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Skies are clear across the Finger Lakes this morning as the high moves in, leading to some final chilly temperatures. Many places have bottomed out in the low 30s with pockets dropping into the 20s.

Temperatures will take off in a hurry this morning thanks to ample sunshine and southerly winds originating from the Southeastern United States. The wind will still be a bit blustery, with speeds up to 10 mph and gusts to 25 mph. Afternoon highs will be around 60 degrees.

The south wind will remain in place tonight and may even strengthen over higher elevations. This will continue to push warm air into the region. Even with clear skies, tonight will be around ten degrees warmer than last night. Many areas will stay near or above 40 degrees, and only pockets of 30s are expected.

Saturday will be like today, only warmer. Many areas will push towards 70 degrees. Wind speeds will diminish, spending most of the day below 10 mph. Wind gusts will be around 20 mph.

Few, if any, clouds are expected today or Saturday. That will begin to change by Sunday, though.

Low pressure will begin to develop along the Mid-Atlantic coast, spreading some thin clouds into the area. The sun will filter through these clouds, especially in the morning and in western areas. Rain is not expected, though, and high temperatures should still make it into the mid 60s at least.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday october 21 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Unsettled but Uncertain

The forecast confidence takes a quick drop Sunday night and into next week. What is certain is that it will remain warm, but just how warm will depend on what sort of rain chances there will be.

For Monday and Tuesday, the coastal low will be meandering its way northward. The models remain mixed and inconsistent with the chances for rain making it into the Finger Lakes.

The best chance for steadier, heavier rain would be late Sunday night into early Monday. The chances for that look to be fairly small, though.

More likely, some scattered showers will be about the area, and especially over the eastern half of the Finger Lakes. Some breaks of sun will also be possible and will be more prevalent to the west. As such, it will also be warmer to the west.

Tuesday likewise has a lower chance for rain than Monday, and thus should also have warmer temperatures. Highs very well may be back around 70 degrees.

By Wednesday, the coastal low may still be hanging around, but a second, quick moving system will move through the area before being absorbed into the low. How these two systems interact will influence what rain chances we see and at least some scattered showers should be expected.

This new system will help reinforce the warm air, so highs Wednesday should be at least near 70 degrees once again. Temperatures will take a small hit behind the system, with highs closer to 60 for the end of the week and possibly beyond.

Thursday may have some lingering showers, but then high pressure may build in for some quiet weather to at least start next weekend.

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday october 21 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.

  1. James

    Tonight should be a fine time to watch the Orionid meteor shower. It’s a little past peak, but with clear skies and temperatures in 40s, the viewing will be clear and comfortable.