An area of high pressure has moved in overhead as part of a larger complex of high pressure stretching across most of eastern North America.
This high will dominate our weather pattern for the next several days with quiet, sunny conditions.
There are some clouds and areas of fog about the region this morning. Areas that have cleared out have seen temperatures drop as low as the mid 30s. Areas that have remained cloudy, however, are starting the day around 50 degrees.
The clouds and fog will burn off quickly as the sun rises. By the late morning hours, skies should be sun-filled across the entire region, and many areas will see blue skies well before that.
Once the skies clear today, that will be it for the clouds. Only clear, blue skies are expected for the midday and afternoon hours.
There will be a light north wind in place that will hold temperatures to near or just above 60 degrees. A few cooler pockets may not quite escape the 50s this afternoon. By this evening, that wind will swing around to the south and warmer air will start to push northward.
Overnight lows will mostly end up in the mid 40s, but, as usual, pockets of colder temperatures are likely across the Southern Tier and into Cortland County. Skies will remain clear through the overnight, and through the day on Thursday as well.
South winds will be steady near or above 5 mph day and night on Thursday. Temperatures will respond by reaching the mid 60s in the afternoon. Thursday night lows will stick near or above 50 degrees in the northern Finger Lakes with mid and upper 40s to the south.
Friday will introduce some thin wisps of cloud, but nothing that should impact the sunshine much. Steady south winds will continue, increasing to around 10 mph and pushing temperatures to the upper 60s. Some warmer pockets should hit or exceed 70 degrees.
Pattern Erodes Next Week
Clouds and south winds will hold steady or increase Friday night, leading to overnight lows well into the 50s.
During the day Saturday, the wind will be blustery, with speeds around 15 mph and gusts as high as 35 mph. The clouds will increase and thicken, but some filtered sunshine should still make it through the clouds. High temperatures should be around or above 70 degrees.
Rain showers will move in Saturday night and continue into Sunday morning. This is a newer development in the forecast, but confidence is increasing. Most of the rain should move out before noon on Sunday, but a few stray showers may persist into the afternoon.
Even with the showers, temperatures should still reach the upper 60s. They will not have far to go to get there, with morning lows Sunday near or just below 60 degrees.
Monday will be a touch cooler, but still well above average. Morning lows will be in the low 50s and afternoon highs should reach the mid 60s. A few stray showers cannot be ruled out early, but the chances look low at this time. Sunshine should increase for the afternoon.
Tuesday looks sunny and bright, but temperatures will continue to retreat. Highs are expected to top out in the upper 50s, which is still solidly above average.
The forecast confidence declines for the latter half of next week and the weekend. At some point, a weather system should move through with rain. Temperatures will increase slightly ahead of this system, with some more 60s likely.
However, behind this system, it continues to look like a quick switch to cold weather. Now is the time to finish up our outdoor chores!
Which will last longer?
The warm weather, or the calendar pre-sale period? As you finish up your fall chores to prepare for next year, be sure to get ready for 2023 by preordering the first annual FLX Weather calendar, almanac, and weather journal! This must-have is as functional as it is beautiful and unique, with large date boxes, weather tracking stickers, and a ton of local statistics and weather history! Calendar sales will help ensure FLX Weather has the funds it needs for 2023.
Pre-sales end on the 15th… about the same time the cold should fully arrive. Don’t delay, time is short!
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.