Focus turns to rainfall impacts from Nicole on Friday

finger lakes weather forecast wednesday november 9 2022 sunny high pressure nicole friday rain
Here are the latest details on what the Finger Lakes can expect from rain associated with Tropical Storm Nicole on Friday and Friday Night. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Leading Up to Nicole

A large, strong area of high pressure continues to dominate our weather with clear skies and cool temperatures.

Most of the region got down into the 20s this morning for what, on a whole, was the coldest morning so far this season. With the high overhead, skies were clear, and winds will calm, leading to ideal cooling conditions.

Today the high will start to track to our east and we will get into the warmer return flow on its backside. Light southeast winds will develop this morning and will turn to the south this afternoon. Wind speeds will remain gentle but will increase further this evening and become blustery. A few higher elevations may gust to 30 mph tonight.

Meanwhile, skies will remain clear, with bright sunshine throughout the day today and moonlight throughout the night.

Temperatures today will climb into the 55-60 degree range. A few of the valley locations of the Southern Tier could sneak above 60 degrees. The south wind will keep temperatures much warmer tonight, with lows generally a few degrees on either side of 40 degrees. The Southern Tier will be coolest, in the upper 30s, with the northern lake plains warmest.

Thursday will follow suit with more sunshine and more warning. Some thin clouds will pass through from time to time, but the cloud shield from Nicole is not expected to arrive until near or after sunset. The wind will remain from the south, but should not be as blustery as during the nighttime hours.

Thursday’s high temperatures will be into the low and mid 60s. Nighttime temperatures will only drop to the upper 40s and low 50s as south winds persist and clouds increase.

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Rain from Nicole

Nicole is on the cusp of reaching hurricane status this morning and could well achieve it by the time you are reading this. The center of the storm is still several hundred miles east of Florida, yet due to its expansive size, tropical storm force winds are already moving inland.

The models continue to tweak and adjust the anticipated track of the center of Nicole as it moves north through the eastern United States. Back-and-forth adjustments are likely to continue, not unlike what often happens with an impending winter storm. My job is to cut through the noise in the models and the hype from the media to give you the best shot at understanding and preparing, so here goes:

Rain will enter the Finger Lakes from the south Friday morning. This will be an initial batch of rain which should not be too heavy. On-and-off periods of rain will persist throughout the day. This may impact some Veteran’s Day ceremonies and parades, but will not have many other major impacts.

Temperatures on Friday will rise into the low 60s and winds will remain fairly ordinary from the southeast at up to 10 mph.

Depending on the fine details of the track, the rain may come to an end for a time late in the afternoon or evening for the eastern half of the region as the center of low pressure approaches from the south and moves overhead.

Heavy rain will develop on the backside of the center of low pressure, initially starting to our west and then crossing the region Friday night into very early Saturday. Some blustery winds will accompany this heavy rain, but peak gusts should remain at or under 40 mph.

The atmospheric setup Friday night will be very favorable for heavy rain, and localized downpours could cause some flooding. Any storm drains that are leaf-clogged will certainly add to that potential.

For the most part, though, the recent dry weather has us in good shape to take on this heavy rain. Also, the speed with which the rain will be moving should help limit the overall rain totals.

At this time, I am expecting a widespread 1.5-3 inches of rain throughout the event, with much of that coming Friday night. I would not be surprised to see some locally higher amounts, though.

finger lakes weather 7day forecast wednesday november 9 2022 improved alt text coming to this daily graphic soon
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Cold Behind Nicole

The rain should depart early Saturday morning, leaving just a few lingering showers behind. Some lake effect will also kick up late in the day, but mostly for areas outside of the Finger Lakes.

Temperatures will take an interesting path as the low moves through, too. Friday night, temperatures should rise into the mid or even upper 60s for a time. As the low passes, winds will turn to the northwest and cool air will invade. By Saturday morning, temperatures will be in the low 50s, where they will hover much of the day.

Saturday night, the cold air will entrench itself, with overnight temperatures well into the 30s. Lake effect will expand and persist into Sunday, with rain and snow showers dotting the region.

Northwest winds may gust to 30 mph on Sunday, helping hold temperatures to the low 40s. Lake effect will organize Sunday night as temperatures drop into the 20s, leading to some light accumulations in the typical areas southeast of Lake Ontario.

A few snow showers may linger into early Monday, but the atmosphere should dry out for most of the day. It will be cool, with highs in the upper 30s and low 40s. Partly cloudy skies and calm winds Monday night will again send temperatures deep into the 20s.

Tuesday looks like a dry, quiet day. Clouds are likely, both from Lake Ontario early in the day, and from the next approaching weather system in the afternoon. This system may spread rain and/or snow into the early for the middle of next week.

Temperatures will remain cold for the foreseeable future, with daily highs sticking in the vicinity of 40 degrees and nighttime temperatures commonly dipping into the 20s.

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finger lakes weather 7day forecast wednesday november 9 2022 improved alt text coming to this daily graphic soon
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.