Cold pattern remains through the weekend and beyond

finger lakes weather forecast friday november 18 2022 sun clouds lake effect snow breezy cold
Snow should be limited to minimal accumulations under an inch with snow showers Friday and Sunday. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Chilly with Snow Showers

Cold air is deeply entrenched over the northeastern United States and Great Lakes region and will remain in place for the foreseeable future.

Of course, the cold air is producing plenty of lake effect just outside of the Finger Lakes region. Locally, though, just some snow showers on the fringe edge of the Lake Erie snow band are flying. Most of these snow showers are and will continue to be light, with accumulations of a coating. The two exceptions may be in and around the Bristol Hills, where a couple inches may locally accumulate, and in the hills at the south ends of Skaneateles and Otisco Lakes, where up to an inch may fall.

Outside of the snow showers, some breaks of clear skies are dotting the region and will continue into the early afternoon. Late in the day, a small disturbance will pass through, increasing the cloud cover and bringing a few more snow showers into the area. Some pockets of briefly reduced visibility will be possible around sunset.

Blustery southwest winds will continue today, though the wind will be a touch weaker than yesterday. Wind speeds will be around or just over 10 mph with gusts of 25-35 mph this morning and then dropping for the afternoon. The best chance for gusts over 30 mph will be across the western half of the region.

High temperatures today will lose a couple more degrees, with most areas around or under 35 degrees. Evening temperatures will quickly fall into the 20s, and overnight lows will range from 15 to 25 degrees.

After midnight, the winds over Lake Erie will turn more toward the south. Lake effect will pivot northwestward as a result, removing the snow showers from our area. Skies will be a mix of sunshine and clouds throughout Saturday with no precipitation expected.

The southwest winds will continue to push colder air into the region with speeds near or under 10 mph. Highs on Saturday will mostly be in the low and mid 30s. Some higher elevations, especially in the west, may not break 30 degrees.

A cold front will move through Saturday night, possibly with a burst of snow after midnight. This will turn winds to the west-northwest, bringing snow showers back in for Sunday.

The wind will be strong, with speeds of 15-20 mph and gusts of 40-45 mph. Temperatures will struggle to get above 30 degrees in most areas, with plenty of highs in the 20s for higher elevations. Wind chills during the day will be in the 10s.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday november 18 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Quiet, Not Quite as Cold

The weather for much of next week will be quiet and good for holiday travel. High pressure will build in, putting an end to the lake effect machines and bringing sunshine to the area.

Winds will still be blustery on Monday, but from the south-southwest. Wind speeds will be 10-15 mph with gusts of 25-35 mph. There will be some clouds around in the morning, but skies should brighten for the afternoon.

This time, the southwest winds will be warming winds, with highs Monday reaching the low 40s, rising all the way from morning lows mostly in the 10s.

Tuesday will be one of the sunniest days next week, but there will still be a few clouds here and there. Winds will be much lighter, with speeds under 10 mph. Temperatures will nudge a little higher, reaching the mid 40s. That is right on average for this time of the year, though morning lows well into the 20s will still be cooler than average.

Wednesday will see an increase in clouds and perhaps a few late snow showers. This will be in response to a subtle cold front that will drop through the region. This front will not have much moisture or energy to work with but will bring temperatures down a bit.

As long as the front arrives late in the day or at night, highs on Wednesday should still reach the low 40s. On Thanksgiving Day Thursday, temperatures are more likely to be in the upper 30s. After some sunshine early, clouds may increase later in the day.

I continue to pay close attention to the end of next week with a weather system threatening the area Friday and/or Saturday. The details are still too uncertain this far out to tell if we will see rain, snow, both, or get missed by this system. Stay tuned and be wary of hype.

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday november 18 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.

2 Responses

  1. Jeanne Birmingham

    Thanks for your report! How is it looking for the 5pm
    flight from Ithaca to Detroit on Sunday?

    • Meteorologist Drew Montreuil

      There shouldn’t be anything to be overly worried about… mostly just a few snow showers and gusty winds.