Limited Dry Time
An area of high pressure is moving through the Finger Lakes today, finally bringing a day without rain chances.
Skies are mostly clear to start this morning. Areas that cleared out sooner overnight are starting in the low 30s and upper 20s, while areas that held onto some clouds until the predawn hours are in the mid 30s.
Some fair weather clouds will start to bubble up this morning and will persist into the afternoon. The models have backed off somewhat on the extent of these clouds, and some areas west of Canandaigua Lake may only see a few small puffs.
Most of the region will see mixed skies with the sun darting in and out of the small to medium sized clouds. No rain is expected from any of the clouds.
With the high overhead, winds will be nearly calm for much of the day. Temperatures will get a slight boost from the sunshine but will still be a couple degrees shy of the seasonal averages. Highs will range from the low 60s for select places like Dansville, Elmira, and Owego, down to the mid 50s in the higher elevations. Most areas should settle into the upper 50s.
Fair weather clouds will dissipate late this afternoon as the daytime heating is lost. Clear skies this evening will gradually fill with thin clouds, mainly after midnight. A southeast wind will also develop, increasing to 5-10 mph during the overnight.
Temperatures will drop to around 40 degrees tonight, with most of the cooling coming during the evening hours.
Friday will have a deck of thin overcast in place to start the day. A little sun may try to shine through this, but over time, the clouds will thicken further. The morning and even early afternoon hours will remain dry.
Rain will move in from the southwest during the second half of the afternoon. The rain will be light and may break up at times. Overall, though, persistent light rain is expected into the evening and overnight hours.
With the rain moving in from the southwest during the afternoon, temperatures will vary based on its arrival time. Highs in the western Southern Tier will only reach the mid to perhaps upper 50s. Upper 50s to near 60 degrees are expected throughout the remainder of the southern half of the region.
Further north, low 60s are expected near the north ends of the Finger Lakes, while mid 60s will be possible between I-90 and Lake Ontario, especially to the east near Syracuse, where the rain will arrive latest.
Southeast winds will continue throughout the day with speeds near 10 mph and gusts around 25 mph.
Wet Weekend Weather Extends into Next Week
Rain showers will continue to fall Saturday morning as low pressure to our west slowly tracks north through southern Ontario. Eventually, dry air should wrap around the low and into the region, cutting off much of the precipitation during the early afternoon.
A few stray showers will continue to be possible for the rest of Saturday, Saturday night, and into early Sunday. This stretch will probably be among the driest times this weekend.
Temperatures on Saturday will be cooler than today or Friday, with highs mostly sticking to the mid 50s. Saturday night will see temperatures drop to the mid 40s.
Southeast winds will persist through Saturday with speeds of 10-15 mph. A few gusts to 30 mph will be possible, mainly over higher terrain. Some lower elevations, especially in the Southern Tier, may see overall lighter winds.
A second low pressure system will move north through the eastern United States on Sunday. There are still some uncertainties in the track and speed of this low and its associated precipitation.
That being said, rain should increase during the day on Sunday, peaking in intensity during the late afternoon and evening hours. One or more bands of heavy rain will be possible embedded within the larger precipitation shield.
On the high end, localized rain amounts of two inches or more will be possible by Monday morning. Widespread amounts of a half-inch to an inch and a half will be possible.
Southeast winds will continue on Sunday with speeds similar to or lighter than Saturday. Temperatures may have a chance of reaching the low 60s, especially if the rain is delayed later into the afternoon.
Some cool, showery weather will set up behind this system for at least the first half of next week. Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday should all have scattered showers to varying degrees. The timing and intensity of these showers will depend on subtle waves of atmospheric energy, similar to our early week pattern this week.
Temperatures during this stretch will stick to the low and mid 50s during the day, and around 40 degrees at night.
Additional showers may persist into the latter half of the week as well, but this is less certain at this point. Temperatures should remain cool until a gradual warming trend the following week.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.