A cold front will drop south from Canada during the afternoon hours with a band of rain showers and falling temperatures.
Out ahead of the front, some sunshine mixed with a few clouds will be the rule for the morning hours.
Light southwest winds will continue to blow, which combined with the sun, will push temperatures into the upper 60s and low 70s by the late morning.
The first sign of the front will be a shift in the winds to a northerly direction. The wind speed will also increase. During the afternoon, wind speeds will be near 15 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph.
Temperatures will start to fall over the northern parts of the region by midday, and across the rest of the region during the early afternoon. This drop will be significant and noticeable, with a quick drop to the 60s followed by a steadier drop through the 50s. By 5 PM, most areas should be closer to 50 degrees.
There will be some rain with the front, but it will not amount to much. As the main band of rain moves onshore from Lake Ontario early this afternoon, new activity should pop up to its south across the southern and eastern Finger Lakes.
Over the next couple of hours, the new activity will move out of the region while it strengthens. The first band of rain will subsequently weaken. As such, much of the region will miss out on the best conditions for rain from either set of precipitation.
Most areas should still see some showers, with the best chance for some thunder coming across the Southern Tier. Most of the rain should fall between 1-4 PM, though some initial showers may slide in slightly before that time frame, and a few lingering showers may persist into the late afternoon. Most areas should see under a tenth of an inch of rainfall.
Skies will clear out this evening as cool north winds continue to bring cold air in. Overnight lows will range from the low 40s near Lake Ontario to some pockets of low 30s across the Southern Tier and Central New York. Most areas should be in the mid and upper 30s.
Thanks to the steady winds overnight, widespread frost is not expected. Sheltered areas could see some patch frost development in the coldest areas.
Skies will be sunny on Thursday, but temperatures will definitely be cooler in the wake of the front.
With steady north winds near 10 mph, most areas will stick to the mid and upper 50s for afternoon highs. Rochester, Syracuse, Dansville, and the broader river valleys between Corning and Binghamton have the best shot at hitting or eclipsing 60 degrees on Thursday.
Clear skies and light winds Thursday night will push temperatures down to similar levels as Wednesday night. This time, without the persistent wind, frost will be more common.
Temperatures Rebound, Get Hot
By Friday, the cold air mass will be departing the region and warm air will start to make a steady and significant comeback.
Temperatures on Friday should reach the mid 60s despite a light north wind remaining in place. Skies will be sunny with few if any clouds.
Winds will be nearly calm Friday night and skies will be clear. However, it should not be as cold, with overnight lows mostly sticking to the low and mid 40s.
The models have pretty much completely abandoned any chances for rain during the long holiday weekend. Saturday and Sunday may not even have any clouds to discuss, let alone rain.
The sunshine will allow temperatures to reach their full potential, with highs in the mid and upper 70s on Saturday, with upper 70s and a few low 80s on Sunday.
By Monday, most areas should be into the 80s. Some fair weather clouds will pop up in the afternoon, but rain is not expected.
Hot weather will build in for the middle of next week. Highs on Tuesday should reach the mid 80s, and upper 80s to near 90 is not out of the question Wednesday and/or Thursday.
By late next week, there may be a few pop up afternoon showers and storms. Temperatures will start to drop by next weekend with increasing chances for rain into the following week.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.