Dry Today, Wet Tomorrow
A broad low pressure system will gradually spin its way across the Great Lakes and Northeastern United States over the next few days.
Today, our region will be in a wedge of dry air between the front that brought yesterday’s rain and the unsettled weather beneath the low itself.
Sunshine and a few areas of cloudiness are across the area this morning, and mixed skies will be with us for much of the day.
During the latter half of the morning, puffy fair-weather clouds should develop. These will persist into the afternoon. Some additional clouds will also build in from the west during the late afternoon as the unsettled weather draws closer.
Temperatures today will mostly be near or slightly above 70 degrees. A few of the typically warmer urban and valley areas may reach the mid 70s, while higher elevations may not quite make it to 70 degrees.
Winds will be gentle from the southwest with speeds around 5 mph.
No rain is expected throughout most of the day. Late in the afternoon, a few showers may move into far western areas, mainly west of I-390. Most of these showers will dissipate in the evening, but a stray spit of rain cannot be ruled out.
After midnight, rain will make another push into the area. The rain may be steady at times during the predawn and morning hours on Wednesday as it slowly rotates its way eastward.
By Wednesday afternoon, thunderstorms will develop on the east side of this area of rain. While most of these will be to our east, some downpours and rumbles of thunder will be possible, especially north and east of an Elmira to Penn Yan to Rochester line.
As these heavier showers and storms develop, the steadier rain will also transition to more hit-or-miss type showers. These will continue into the evening across much of the region before dissipating overnight.
Rainfall amounts on Wednesday will be highly variable. Localized amounts over an inch and a half are possible, as are localized amounts under a quarter of an inch. Most areas will probably end up between half and one inch.
With plenty of clouds and showers on Wednesday and the low pressure spinning overhead, temperatures will be cool with highs only in the low and mid 60s.
On Thursday, the primary area of low pressure will be to the east. This should bring primarily dry weather into the area once again. A stray shower cannot be ruled out, especially in the morning over eastern areas.
With the low passing to our east, winds will turn northerly or northwesterly across New York, Ontario, and Quebec. This could open up an opportunity for wildfire smoke to return to the area, but this remains highly uncertain at this time. Our smoke risk should become more evident tonight and tomorrow.
Otherwise, Thursday should have a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the low and mid 70s.
A separate piece of atmospheric energy will get caught up into the spin of the primary low on Friday. This disturbance will be sucked into the circulation, passing through our area as it does so.
As such, scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will return again on Friday. How much rain will fall, and how much of the day will have rain, is still a bit uncertain.
High temperatures on Friday will only make it into the upper 60s.
Saturday should be dry again, though like today and Thursday, there will be a small chance for a stray shower in select areas. Showers will become more possible on Sunday, though the chances for rain look lower than on Friday or Wednesday.
High temperatures through the weekend should be into the 70s, with 70s continuing throughout next week as well. By late in the week, highs may be approaching 80 degrees.
Next week will also have some chances for rain, but overall looks drier and less unsettled than this week.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.