Hot, and then Not
Heat advisories are in effect for most of the Finger Lakes region today as a hot and humid air mass settles into place.
Temperatures will quickly rise this morning as some valley fog and patches of morning clouds burn off. Sunshine will be plentiful for much of the day, though some occasional patches of mainly thin clouds will pass through from time to time.
Light southwest winds around 5 mph will help import the hot and humid air.
Many places will end up around or slightly over 90 degrees this afternoon. Low to even mid 90s will be possible in the broad valleys between Elmira and Binghamton.
Dewpoints will spend most of the day in the upper half of the 60s, but there are some hints at some dry air developing over parts of the region this afternoon, which could cause dewpoints to slip to the upper 50s and low 60s for a time.
The dewpoints will cause heat index values to reach the upper 90s at times, which has prompted the heat advisory.
It will remain warm and muggy tonight, with evening temperatures sticking to the 70s and overnight lows only making it into the upper 60s.
No rain is expected during the daytime or evening hours. However, during the predawn hours, leftover rain and thunder from storms that develop over the Midwest today will move into the area.
Periods of rain and thunder are likely through the morning hours. Since rain, or at the very least clouds, is expected to arrive before dawn, there will be little to no chance for the atmosphere to prime itself for stronger thunderstorms. Severe weather, therefore, looks unlikely on Saturday.
However, showers and thunderstorms may well continue to rumble into the early or even mid afternoon hours. The overall weather pattern will move from northwest to southeast, so areas like Elmira and Binghamton will hold on to the rain chances the longest Saturday afternoon.
Some of the rain may come down heavily, with localized pockets of over an inch possible.
Eventually, the rain will move out and the day may end with some sunshine. High temperatures will only make it to the mid 70s.
The cold front will turn winds to the north-northwest Saturday afternoon, and a generally northerly flow will remain in place into the middle of next week. This will ensure a prolonged period of cooler temperatures.
For Sunday, morning lows will be in the upper 50s with a few places remaining near 60 degrees. A small disturbance behind the cold front will touch off some clouds and scattered showers during the morning hours.
Sunday afternoon is more likely to be dry with sun mixing with numerous fair weather clouds. High temperatures will be in the mid 70s.
On Monday, it is the afternoon and evening that will have a chance for some showers as another small ripple of atmospheric energy passes by. A few thunderstorms may be possible, but severe weather is unlikely.
Temperatures on Monday will start out ranging through the 50s and afternoon highs will again be in the mid 70s.
Lingering showers will be possible on Tuesday as well, mainly triggered by the daytime heating. Like Sunday and Monday, these showers will be scattered at most, and there will be areas that see no rainfall.
Tuesday morning’s lows will mainly be in the low and mid 50s with afternoon highs in the low and mid 70s.
Wednesday morning will probably end up the coolest morning with lows ranging from the upper 40s to the mid 50s. Afternoon highs will remain in the mid 70s. Precipitation seems unlikely, with just a mix of sun and clouds expected.
The next notable weather system will not arrive until late next week. At this point, Thursday looks dry with highs jumping back to the low 80s. Friday seems the most likely day to have rain and thunderstorms.
Temperatures are favored to return to the 70s behind this system for another prolonged period.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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