Late Week Weather
A pair of weather systems will move through the Finger Lakes region today with occasional showers and a few thunderstorms.
The first system is a disturbance in the atmosphere associated with the remains of a complex of thunderstorms that originated about 36 hours ago over Colorado and Kansas. This disturbance has an area of rain showers with it this morning moving into the Finger Lakes region.
Some weakening of the rain showers is expected through the morning. As the showers break up, eastern areas will be less likely to see periods of steady rain. Still, most areas should see at least some rain during the morning and midday hours.
Second, a cold front will drop southeast toward the region this afternoon. In the wake of the clouds and morning showers, the atmosphere will not have much fuel to supply for thunderstorm development, with temperatures peaking in the low and mid 70s at best.
A few scattered showers and thunderstorms will manage to develop during the late afternoon and early evening. These will be more sporadic than the rain this morning, so several areas will not see the additional rainfall.
Evening temperatures will drop through the 60s as a few showers linger early on before transitioning to areas of fog and drizzle. Morning lows Friday should be in the mid and upper 50s as skies begin to clear out.
Friday will be a pleasant day with a mix of sun and clouds and high temperatures in the mid 70s. It will not be humid, with dewpoints in the 50s. Northwest winds will blow at 5-10 mph.
Skies will be clear Friday evening, but clouds will build in overnight. Winds will go calm before turning to the southeast with speeds around 5 mph. The increasing clouds and wind shift will be in response to the next weather system approaching.
Mixed Weather Ahead
Saturday remains a day to watch for the potential for some stronger thunderstorms, thanks to the presence of an enhanced jet stream just to our southwest. This jet stream will provide both stronger winds aloft to organize thunderstorms and overall atmospheric support for thunderstorm development.
As is often the case, though, morning showers and clouds will potentially have an impact on how much fuel is available for thunderstorms to tap into. There are also questions on the timing of the associated cold front with this system.
This remains a wait-and-see approach, though the short-term models that are better at thunderstorm modeling are beginning to come into range of “seeing” Saturday. This should help to start chipping away at some of these uncertainties. The picture is not likely to be completely clear until sometime on Saturday, if ever.
Regardless, there will likely be at least some rain around at some point on Saturday, so those with outdoor plans should continue to closely monitor the forecast.
This system will pull out by Sunday. A few lingering showers will be possible as pop-ups during Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will be close to average with highs in the upper 70s.
The next system continues to look more and more delayed. The daytime hours on Monday now appear to be dry, with a mix of some sunshine and increasing clouds. Rain and thunderstorms will move in Monday Night and will likely linger into Tuesday.
Wednesday and Thursday appear dry with near-average temperatures continuing. A quick-moving front will pass through Thursday night or Friday, which should keep temperatures warm but not too hot through next weekend.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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