A few scattered strong late day thunderstorms

Warm, then a bit Stormy

A wave of energy will travel along the front draped across the northern half of the region this afternoon, triggering some thunderstorms.

Before this disturbance arrives, skies will be a mix of sun and clouds. Most of the clouds will be thin clouds high in the atmosphere, allowing some filtered sunshine through.

Temperatures will quickly warm for most of the region, pushing into the low and mid 70s this afternoon. Areas near and north of I-90 will not be quite as warm, with the front moving little today. These areas should see highs somewhere in the 60s.

Thunderstorms should start to develop sometime in the late afternoon. The most active time period should be between 5-9 PM.

The best chance for thunderstorms, and thus a few scattered severe storms, will be across the southwestern quadrant of the region. Scattered storms and a few small line segments will develop and organize before heading east.

As these storms get into the Elmira-Ithaca area, the sun will have probably set, and the storms will lose steam. East of these areas, there is just an isolated severe threat.

A secondary area of development will be possible across the northeastern quadrant of the region, starting near Wayne county and moving east-southeast toward Syracuse and the Mohawk Valley. These storms will not have as much energy to work with as the storms further southwest, but still may have an isolated severe threat.

Damaging winds and hail will be the primary threats from these storms. The tornado threat is just a hair above 0%, focusing on the far western Southern Tier, west of the Finger Lakes Weather forecast area. I do not expect any tornadic activity in the Finger Lakes.

Cool Side of the Front

The front will drop south tonight behind this disturbance, placing the Finger Lakes back into the cooler air north of the front. By Thursday morning, areas along the shore of Lake Ontario will be in the mid 40s, while the area between Corning and Binghamton will still be near 60 degrees.

Temperatures will only rise a couple degrees on Thursday, with highs mostly ranging through the 50s. Most areas will be in the mid 50s, with cooler temperatures north of I-90, and warmer in the Southern Tier.

Scattered showers will be possible in the morning, followed by a steadier rain in the afternoon and evening as low pressure rides along the front. Some heavier downpours and rumbles of thunder may be possible across the Southern Tier during the evening hours.

This low will stall over New England on Friday. Blustery winds with gusts over 40 mph and scattered showers will be common over the Finger Lakes.

Highs will be in the low 50s on Friday during the midday and early afternoon. By the late afternoon, temperatures will be sliding through the 40s. Temperatures will then fall into the 30s Friday evening, changing the rain to some areas of snow. Little to no accumulation is expected.

Saturday will be dry with early clouds giving way to sunshine. Temperatures will start in the mid 30s before rising to the mid 50s.

Sunday is uncertain, with a chance for a few rain showers and warmer air moving back into the region. Highs in the 60s are likely, but 70s are not out of the question.

There will be a better chance for 70s on Monday before another batch of rain moves in late in the day. This rain should continue through much of Tuesday.

An up and down temperature pattern looks to continue well into May, with each peak and minimum becoming a bit warmer than the last.

More Information:

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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.