Final mild day ahead of prolonged cool pattern

finger lakes weather forecast tuesday may 4 2021 sun clouds thunderstorms
After morning clouds, some afternoon sun will give temperatures a boost and trigger some late day showers and storms. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Rain and Thunderstorm Chances

Frontal boundaries have been stalled out near or over the Finger Lakes for several days, keeping our weather unsettled but on the milder side.

Today will be the final day for this regime though, with some major changes starting tomorrow morning.

The area is starting off cloudy but mostly dry this morning. Temperatures generally range through the 50s, though there are a few cooler pockets.

Expect the clouds to stick around this morning, but break up for the afternoon. With the sunshine, temperatures will easily rise to the low and mid 70s. Dewpoints will also be on the rise and should push above 60 degrees.

While the humidity will not be overly noticeable, it will help set the stage for some scattered late day showers and thunderstorms.

These will start to develop after 4 PM and will drift east-northeastward across the region. The southeastern half of the area has a better chance for rain and thunder than areas further northwest. This includes Corning, Elmira, Ithaca and Cortland, but areas such as Penn Yan, Geneva, Auburn, and Syracuse may get in on some of the action as well.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the first part of the evening, with the greatest coverage of storms coming just after sunset. Locally heavy downpours will be possible, along with some gusty winds. Severe weather and flooding are generally not expected, though.

After a lull in the precipitation overnight, a new batch of widespread rain and some embedded thundery downpours will move into the Finger Lakes near dawn tomorrow. This will spread from southwest to northeast. Some localized minor flooding could be possible if areas see heavy rain tonight and again in the morning.

Temperatures will stick around 60 degrees much of the night, but will drop to the mid 50s as the rain moves in. The temperature will drop further Wednesday morning as the rain moves out, ending up around 50 degrees for the afternoon.

Skies will remain cloudy Wednesday afternoon, but precipitation will be limited to a few stray showers or some drizzle.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast tuesday may 4 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Cool Pattern Dominates

Once the temperatures drop tomorrow morning, they will remain below the seasonal averages for an extended period of time. Average daytime highs are in the mid 60s while average lows are in the low 40s.

Instead, daytime highs in the 50s and overnight lows in the 30s will become commonplace.

Thursday will be a quiet and sunny day as high pressure quickly moves through the area. Morning lows will start near 40, though typically colder outlying areas will start in the 30s. Daytime highs will struggle into the mid 50s.

Thursday night, temperatures will drop into the mid 30s. An incoming weather system will spread precipitation into the area early Friday, resulting in a mix of rain and snow. Precipitation will end by the afternoon and highs should manage to approach 50 degrees.

A few stray showers will be possible on Saturday as highs work into the mid 50s. Mother’s Day is not looking pleasant at all, with rain and highs in the mid 40s at best. There will be a chance for some more snow as well, depending on the timing of the precipitation.

Dry weather is expected for the start of next week, but with highs sticking to the low and mid 50s. Temperatures will remain in the 50s through next week, with some additional chances for rain later in the week.

Near-average temperatures may not return until after next weekend.

More Information:

» Finger Lakes Weather Radar

» Finger Lakes Weather Radar

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast tuesday may 4 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys and also run a goat milk soap business, Ye Olde Goat Cart. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.

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