Low Pressure Departs
In the wake of the heavy rain and flooding yesterday, our region will get a respite for a couple of days before heading back into rainy weather.
The rain event yesterday exceeded expectations to produce widespread flooding, especially for areas east of Seneca Lake. A combination of under-estimating the amount of rain by the weather models and an over-estimation of how much rain our soil could take by the flash flood guidance models made for a worst-case surprise flood event.
My thoughts and prayers go out to all who were impacted by flooding yesterday.
Thankfully, the weather for the next two days will be quiet and dry.
High pressure is nosing in from the west as the low departs out into the open waters of the North Atlantic.
Already this morning, skies are clearing across the northern portions of the region. Clouds remain in place across the south but will gradually burn off over the morning hours.
By the afternoon, sunshine should be abundant throughout the region, with just a few patches of thin clouds, mainly in the eastern half of the area.
North winds will blow at around 10 mph. Nonetheless, afternoon highs should still make it to the mid 50s.
The wind will die down tonight and skies will remain clear. Temperatures will fall and most areas will end up between 35-40 degrees. The warmer temperatures will occur near the lakeshores. A few colder pockets could end up in the low 30s with patchy frost. This is most likely in the Southern Tier in areas that have already seen frost this season or been close to it.
There may also be some patchy fog that develops before quickly burning off after sunrise Thursday.
Mostly sunny skies will persist through Thursday, again with nothing more than a few thin clouds here and there.
Temperatures will add a few degrees despite the cool start. Highs will generally be in the upper 50s, though a few places will probably poke above 60 degrees.
Dry weather will continue through Thursday night and into the first half of Friday.
Steady southeast winds and increasing clouds Thursday night will keep temperatures in the low and mid 40s. High temperatures should reach the mid and upper 50s as long as the rain holds off until later in the afternoon.
Rain will overspread the area from southwest to northeast late Friday afternoon and into Friday night. The rain will gradually taper off Saturday morning, but showers will remain plentiful through the day.
Unfortunately, there are some similarities to the weather yesterday. Low pressure will be over Pennsylvania and will be slow to move. This could set up some areas of steady, slow moving rain.
The rain amounts should be well below what fell yesterday, but some areas could still see over an inch. Obviously, this will be something to monitor over the next couple days.
Temperatures on Saturday will be split, with mid and upper 50s in the east where warm air is able to move north ahead of the low, but 40s possible to the west where cold air is drawn into the low.
A few scattered showers will linger into Sunday but the weather should dry out by the evening for trick-or-treating. High temperatures Sunday will be in the low 50s with early evening temperatures dropping to the mid and upper 40s.
Monday looks to be a dry day before a cold front approaches for Tuesday. Rain is likely with the front, but the precipitation should be light and progressive, keeping rain amounts low.
Cooler weather should move in behind this front with highs mostly in the 40s for the second half of next week. More rain is possible late in the week.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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