Now that we are in the middle of the afternoon, it is time for a quick update.
As of 3 PM, I would say that, so far, this winter weather event has been progressing as expected.
After on and off lulls through the morning, the snow has become steadier through the early afternoon. Snowfall rates have increased, and temperatures are on the decline.
Most of the Finger Lakes region has lost several degrees in temperature over the last three hours. The decline in temperature is likely due to a combination of the increased precipitation rates and the strengthening of the front.
The cooler temperatures have allowed the snow to begin to accumulate on the roadways. Road conditions over the next few hours will continue to depend on traffic, road treatment plans, and heavier bursts of snow.
As temperatures continue to fall and snowfall rates increase, road conditions will decline.
Sleet is showing up on the radar *estimated* precipitation types, and in several ground-truth spotter reports, in the far southeastern Finger Lakes. This will continue to be the case, with the snow-sleet line wobbling north at times.
The latest hi-res model data continues to match the observations well, increasing confidence in the forecast. Sleet is unlikely to make it further north than an approximate line from Bath to Ithaca to Cortland.
Please continue to send me your spotter reports. They are extremely helpful in analyzing how the event is unfolding, and the accuracy of the approximations the radar programs make in determining precipitation type.
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» Full Event Forecast (from Wednesday morning)
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