Hot weather Tuesday, scattered strong storms Wednesday

finger lakes weather forecast tuesday may 31 2022 hot showers thunderstorms
May will end on a warm note with some hitting 90 degrees today, while June will start on a stormy note with scattered strong thunderstorms. [Photo by Lisa Curran Joens]

Summertime Warmth

High pressure over the Southeastern United States will supply hot and somewhat muggy air today, while a disturbance caught up in the jet stream will trigger some thunderstorms tomorrow.

Skies over most of the Great Lakes region this morning are sunny, with just a few patches of small clouds. One such path will move through during the mid-morning hours, leading to a period of mixed skies.

Occasional clouds will continue to be possible off and on throughout the day. Some clouds will be thin and high in the atmosphere, while others will be puffy fair weather clouds closer to the surface. None of the clouds should totally block out the sunshine, though.

There is a minimal chance for a stray, isolated shower this afternoon. Most areas will not see any rain, and those that do will see light amounts over a short duration of 10-20 minutes.

Plenty of warm air is already in place, with temperatures starting the 60s and 70s this morning. It will not take long for temperatures to push into the 80s.

Winds at the surface will actually take on a northwesterly direction with speeds increasing to around 10 mph. This may shave a degree or two off of the afternoon highs compared to if winds stayed more southerly.

Still, upper 80s will be widespread and common today and some places are likely to reach 90 degrees. This will be especially likely in urban areas and across portions of Wayne, Seneca, Ontario, Monroe, and Livingston counties. A few higher elevations may stick closer to 85 degrees.

It will remain warm again tonight with lows in the mid and upper 60s once more. Dewpoints will remain in the 60s as well.

Moisture will increase further tomorrow as winds turn back to the southwest. Dewpoints will climb into the mid and upper 60s with temperatures reaching around 80 degrees.

finger lakes weather forecast thunderstorm outlook wednesday june 1 2022
The Storm Prediction Center continues to place the entire FLX region in a Slight Risk for scattered severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon.

Wednesday Thunderstorms

Showers and thunderstorms that develop tonight in the Midwest will likely be ongoing tomorrow morning. These should mostly stay to our north over Lake Ontario and into the Adirondacks and North Country.

Still, a few showers or storms could skirt the northern reaches of the Finger Lakes, north of I-90, during the morning hours.

By the mid-afternoon, new thunderstorms will likely develop, possibly in those same northern areas, along a boundary left behind by the morning activity and in advance of a front associated with an approaching disturbance.

Initially, thunderstorm cells will be individualized. Gradually, they may merge into several small clusters as they drop southeast through the region.

The thunderstorms will be most likely between 3 and 9 PM, and there could be multiple rounds of thunderstorm development.

Of the four factors necessary for severe thunderstorms (moisture, instability/fuel, a triggering mechanism, and winds aloft), all look to be moderately present, but not overly strong. This should lead to some scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, with damaging winds the primary threat.

Most areas will probably not see severe weather, but if a warning is issued for your area, prudent action should be taken.

The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight our area for a Level 2- SLIGHT risk for severe thunderstorms. This risk level is driven by the threat for damaging winds.

Some thunderstorms could also contain some heavy downpours. However, the overall dry pattern of May and a progressive storm movement should prevent any major flooding concerns.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast tuesday may 31 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Cooler Temperatures

Behind the front, temperatures will back off and return to the seasonal averages. Thursday will have highs around 70 degrees. Clouds will increase throughout the day after some early breaks of sun. Rain will move in late but will mostly fall Thursday night.

Friday will swap the pattern, with clouds in the morning dissipating for sunshine in the afternoon. Highs should reach the low 70s.

Temperatures will take another step back on Saturday despite mostly sunny skies. Most places will probably end up just shy of 70 degrees. Saturday night will be cool with lows down in the mid 40s. Isolated cold pockets may dip lower.

Highs on Sunday should be back around 70 degrees. Sunshine may end up being filtered by thin clouds on the edge of the first tropical system of the year as it passes along the coast of the Carolinas and out into the open waters of the North Atlantic. Of course, that is still a long way out as far as tropical systems go, so confidence is low.

Sunshine should return in full on Monday, but unsettled weather towards the middle of the week could also shift that forecast as well. Regardless, temperatures are likely to the 70s or even 60s throughout next week.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast tuesday may 31 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.