Frontal boundary moves in today with soaking storms possible Wednesday

finger lakes weather forecast tuesday june 21 2022 stalled front showers thunderstorms heavy rain hot
A front will stall over the Finger Lakes for the next several days, leading to large variations in temperature and chances for rain and thunderstorms. [Photo by Helen Heizyk]

Tuesday-Wednesday Weather

Scattered showers are moving through the Finger Lakes this morning as warmer air pushes into the region.

Most of the showers are light, though a brief bit of heavier rain and a couple rumbles of thunder are not out of the question. The rain should quickly move south of the region by the mid-morning, leaving the rest of the day dry for most.

The one exception may be areas near and east of I-81, where are few more showers may pop up this afternoon.

Otherwise, clouds will gradually mix with sunshine today, and some western areas may even see full-on clear skies by the later afternoon.

Temperatures this afternoon will have a large range across the region based on the amount of sunshine and the position of the front. For areas west of Seneca Lake, it will be a hot day with highs pushing into the 85-90 degree range.

To the east, temperatures will quickly drop off to Low and mid 70s in the area of I-81. With such a tight gradient in temperatures, even a small deviation in the frontal position or cloud cover could have a big impact on the temperature, especially in the eastern half of the region.

The front will remain stalled out over the eastern parts of the region tonight, with mid and upper 50s in the southeast, ranging to mid and upper 60s in the northwest. These location descriptions are purposefully vague given the temperature gradients and small scale, big influence variations possible.

finger lakes weather forecast tuesday june 21 2022 excessive rainfall outlook wednesday june 22 2022
The Weather Prediction Center, a branch of the NWS, has issued a slight risk for excessive rainfall on Wednesday across the eastern Finger Lakes.

As we head into Wednesday, hot and humid air will continue to push in. Low and even mid 90s are possible west of Cayuga Lake, with temperatures again quickly falling off to the east. Dewpoints will rise to the low 70s for most of the area with high amounts of moisture throughout the lower atmosphere.

An approaching cold front will catch up to the stalled-out warm front, forcing showers and thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon. The atmosphere will be highly unstable, but winds aloft will be weak.

This should result in a couple of briefly severe thunderstorms capable of localized damaging winds. The storms will be poorly organized, though.

Flash flooding may become a greater concern with a combination of slow storm movement, multiple storms moving repeatedly over the same areas, and the atmosphere primed with copious amounts of moisture.

This is especially the case over the eastern half of the region, where the stalled out front will be in place. Many areas east of Seneca Lake will see an inch or more of rain, and some locally excessive amounts on the order of 2-4 inches will be possible.

Our region is currently not particularly prone to flash flooding thanks to the relatively dry recent pattern. Still, conditions can change rapidly if the inches quickly accumulate over the span of a few hours.

The rain and thunderstorms tomorrow will start to fire up between 1-3 PM and will continue to about sunset before they drift southeastward and dissipate.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast tuesday june 21 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Late Week and Weekend Weather

Even as we head into Thursday, the overall pattern will not change much. A frontal boundary will remain stalled out near or just east of the region.

However, the cold front will have swept the heat and humidity out, making for more comfortable temperatures. Highs Thursday should be in the mid and upper 70s with dewpoints in the 50s.

Skies will be a mix of sun and clouds, and a few stray showers cannot be ruled out. The best chance for showers will, again, be in the eastern portions of the region during the afternoon hours. Heavy rain and thunder are not expected, though.

The front will make better eastward progress on Friday, ending up over New England. This should result in quite a bit of sunshine over the Finger Lakes with no rain showers.

Winds will be light out of the north, but highs will still be around 80 degrees.

Saturday will be a dry and sunny day. Just a few thin clouds in the morning are expected. Winds will be nearly calm, but out of the south and southeast.

Temperatures will start to warm back up with widespread mid and upper 80s expected. Dewpoints, however, will remain in the 50s most of the day.

South winds will increase Saturday evening and into Sunday as they turn to the southwest. Wind speeds should stay around 10 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph.

That should be enough to push temperatures Sunday into the upper 80s and low 90s. Dewpoints will rise into the 60s.

Late day and evening showers and storms will move in as a cold front approaches. This front will send temperatures back to the 70s for Monday and Tuesday next week before 80s build back in. At this point, a lot of next week looks dry and quiet with warm, but not excessively hot temperatures.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast tuesday june 21 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.