Hot, A Few Storms
A southerly flow has set up across the Finger Lakes between high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean and an area of low pressure dropping southeast into the Upper Great Lakes.
With the low still far to our west, there will be nothing standing in the way of a hot day today.
Already, temperatures are rising through the 70s for much of the region. As the sun climbs higher in the sky, the pace of warming will accelerate.
There are a few patches of clouds passing through the area this morning. Generally, though, sunshine should be more plentiful today than clouds. Some typical fair-weather clouds will bubble up, but no rain is expected from any of these.
Southwest winds will increase through the day, peaking during the mid and late afternoon at speeds of 7-12 mph. Gusts will come in around 25 mph.
Many areas should see temperatures reach or exceed 90 degrees this afternoon. A few hilltops in Cortland and far southern Onondaga counties, as well as much of Allegany and Wyoming counties, will end up just shy of 90 degrees.
Some highs sneaking into the 93 or 94 degree range is a possibility, especially in the triangle formed between Rochester, Penn Yan, and Syracuse.
Dewpoints will be moderate in the low and mid 60s, so heat index values will not be much higher than the actual temperature. Still, the heat is hazardous enough that the Nation Weather Service has issued Heat Advisories for most of the region.
This evening, as the low draws closer, a line of showers and thunderstorms will move into Western New York. By Midnight, these will be moving into the Finger Lakes, but quickly dissipating. The best chance for some thunder is west of I-390, while the chances for rain east of Seneca Lake are small.
The cold front associated with the low will move through during the midday hours on Thursday. Some scattered showers and storms may pop up before the front moves through. There are significant doubts about how much of the area actually sees rain tomorrow morning and early afternoon, though.
Temperatures will bounce around on Thursday. Overnight lows tonight will be very warm, sticking to the 70s. It will not take much Thursday morning to rise into the 80s. Any showers may briefly send temperatures back to the 70s, but more 80s are likely later in the afternoon as the weather clears.
Uncertainties with the Weekend
Another small impulse of atmospheric energy will move through the area on Friday. The models continue to go back and forth on whether this feature will produce any showers and storms over the area.
Again, even if there are showers and storms, they will be hit or miss, so many areas will remain dry through the day.
Temperatures will depend somewhat on the presence of showers and storms as well, but either way, it will be warm. Highs should reach the mid 80s as a floor, with upper 80s and a few 90-degree readings as a ceiling.
Saturday looks like today, with a combination of plenty of sunshine, south winds, and no expected rainfall leading to hot temperatures. High temperatures should about match today, but dewpoints may end up lower. That may prevent the need for Heat Advisories, but time will tell.
Sunday is a highly uncertain day as a front approaches from the north while the heat builds to the south. The position of the front is key. If the front is overhead or to the south, temperatures will be warm, but not overly hot. Showers and thunderstorms would be likely.
However, the models seem to be trending towards a slower front. This would allow heat into the region. While triple-digit heat bakes areas as close as Pennsylvania and southeastern New York, the upper limit here in the Finger Lakes seems to be closer to widespread mid 90s and pockets of upper 90s.
Showers and thunderstorms would still be possible in this scenario, just later in the day or overnight.
The speed of the front will also impact Monday, though the best chance for rain then seems to be during the morning hours. Behind this front, temperatures will remain warm, but not as hot, with highs mostly settling in the 80s.
This evening, I am giving a talk at the Lodi-Whittier. I will give an overview of the weather here in the Finger Lakes, including lake effect snow, flooding and tornadoes, and how the topography influences our weather. I will also discuss advancements in meteorology and how I take all of this science and communicate it with you.
I am very excited to be back doing in-person events and I hope you can make it to Lodi tonight. The program starts at 5:30 PM and is free and open to the public. Bring your weather questions!
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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