Labor Day Rain
Confidence is increasing in periods of wet weather for the second half of the Labor Day weekend and especially on Labor Day itself.
A frontal boundary will develop over the region tonight into Sunday, sinking south initially before lifting back north tomorrow night. The northward push will be in response to an area of low pressure developing along the front, which will bring a chance for steady, significant rain to the area.
While there are still uncertainties with the position of the front and how the low tracks along it, here is a quick planning guide based on the information as it stands at noon Saturday. Again, this is not set in stone.
Saturday Afternoon — No rain expected until around sunset when some scattered showers and storms develop.
Saturday Evening — Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible, especially over the southern 2/3rds of the region… roughly from the north ends of the lakes, southward.
Saturday Night — A few lingering showers early, but mostly dry.
Sunday Morning — Maybe a stray shower, but mostly dry.
Sunday Afternoon — Scattered showers and storms develop, again mostly over the southern 2/3rds of the region.
Sunday Evening — Thunderstorms diminish in favor of gradually increasing rain showers, which will start in the Southern Tier and spread north and east through the Finger Lakes.
Sunday Night — Periods of steady rain possible, some heavy at times.
Monday Morning — Steadiest rain gradually departs to the east, but lingering showers and a few downpours possible.
Monday Afternoon — Scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially over the southern half of the region.
Monday Night — Most of the rain moves south into Pennsylvania.
Tuesday — A few scattered showers.
There is an alternative scenario where the steadier rain comes later Monday into Tuesday, but most indications are the steadiest rain will be Sunday night into Monday. Rainfall amounts through Tuesday should be between one-half and two inches. Locally higher amounts will be possible.
I should be able to post an update on Sunday during the midday hours, along with a normal blog post Monday morning.
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