High pressure building into the Great Lakes is bumping up a departing low pressure over eastern Canada.
Between these two systems, blustery northwest winds remain in place across the Finger Lakes this Friday morning. Wind speeds will only increase this morning as the sun rises, with speeds of 10-15 mph and gusts of 25-35 mph. The strongest gusts will be over the eastern half of the region, closer to the low.
Lingering lake effect rain showers and a fair bit of cloud cover are coming off Lake Ontario thanks to these winds. The showers will gradually taper off to drizzle and end, while the clouds may linger into the afternoon.
The chances for sunshine will be greater further from the lake. Portions of the Southern Tier are already cloud-free, and temperatures in these areas are starting in the 30s as a result. Eventually, the sun will make its appearance throughout the entire region.
Temperatures today will be chilly with most areas not reaching 55 degrees. As the high pressure moves through tonight, skies will be clear. A light northwest wind will remain, which should help temperatures from bottoming out fully.
Still, morning lows Saturday will be in the upper 30s and low 40s, with both warmer and cooler pockets based on topography. A little patchy frost in Central New York and the Southern Tier is not out of the question, but the light wind should help prevent widespread frost formation.
Saturday will be a dry day with light winds and sunshine mixing with mainly high, thin clouds. Temperatures will get a small bump, reaching a high in the low 60s. Clouds will increase Saturday night and a light south wind will develop. Nighttime temperatures will be around 50 degrees as a result.
The next weather system will meander into the region on Sunday. Showers will be possible at any time, but will gradually increase in coverage throughout the day. The afternoon will likely have numerous showers.
Temperatures will be held in check by the clouds and showers with highs in the low 60s. If the rain is delayed a little and some morning sun comes out, temperatures could sneak a bit higher.
The rain may taper off some for Sunday night, but showers will continue into Monday. Once again, as the afternoon rolls in, showers should increase and become widespread. Afternoon highs will remain stuck in the low 60s.
Scattered showers will remain in place for Tuesday and probably Wednesday as well. These two days should see lesser coverage of showers, but uncertainty in the details remains this far out. Temperatures should remain in the low 60s Tuesday but may not reach 60 degrees on Wednesday.
Thursday at this point is looking like a partly cloudy and cool day with highs in the mid 50s.
Beyond that, the weather becomes highly uncertain thanks to newly formed Tropical Depression 9, which has just developed in the south-central Caribbean Sea. This should quickly strengthen into Tropical Storm, and eventually Hurricane Hermine.
Determining the track of tropical systems more than a few days in advance has very low certainty, but Hermine should be near Florida by Tuesday night and may make its way up the East Coast from there. If rain from Hermine makes it into the Finger Lakes, it would likely do so next Friday or next weekend.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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