Snow and some mixed precipitation continue across the eastern half of the Finger Lakes this morning.
To the west, warmer and drier air has moved in, cutting off most of the precipitation and sending temperatures into the mid 30s.
This wedge of warmer, dry air will slowly press eastward this morning, gradually ending most of the precipitation in our region. Light spits of rain or snow will continue to be possible from time to time, though.
Road conditions are mixed this morning, with most traffic cams showing just wet conditions on the major thoroughfares throughout the Finger Lakes. However, secondary and rural roads are likely to be messy, so use due diligence and plan accordingly. As temperatures rise and precipitation ends, road conditions will improve.
Clouds will remain plentiful this afternoon until some clearing moves in from the west around sunset. As such, the further east, the less chance the sun makes it out before it sinks below the horizon.
Winds will turn to the west and northwest today, and may briefly become blustery during the midday and early afternoon. Lighter winds are expected later in the afternoon.
Temperatures will creep upwards for highs in the upper 30s and low 40s. The temperature will be quick to drop back into the 20s this evening as skies continue to clear and winds continue to decrease.
After midnight, clouds will move back in, and a light southeast wind will develop. This will slow the temperature drop, with temperatures Wednesday morning ranging from pockets of mid 10s to near-lake mid 20s.
A small impulse of atmospheric energy will slide through during the midday and afternoon hours Wednesday, spreading some light rain and snow showers into the region. No snow accumulation is expected, and some areas may see very little precipitation.
Temperatures Wednesday will reach the mid 40s, with a chance for some warmer temperatures west of I-390 in the far western Finger Lakes.
Thursday looks quiet with clouds and a few breaks of sun. Morning lows will start in the low 30s, but afternoon highs will only make it to the mid and upper 30s. Northwest winds will be breezy, but gusts should stay under 30 mph.
Next Winter Weather Event Friday into the Weekend
Models continue to be in good agreement that a significant winter weather event will unfold for Friday across the northeastern United States.
However, there is poor agreement among the models on what this will mean for the Finger Lakes.
The European model, which is the one I tend to trust most, has trended warmer, leading to a decrease in expected snow, but an increase in the potential for an icy mix. Other models have also trended warmer, but not as much, and some still have significant snow in at least portions of our area.
While yesterday I favored snow amounts over four inches with an 80% chance, now it is looking more like a 50-50 shot for over four inches. What does not fall as snow will likely fall as sleet and freezing rain, so impacts will remain high, regardless.
Precipitation on Friday will likely be heaviest during the afternoon and evening hours but should also linger into Saturday morning. The precipitation Saturday morning could turn over to non-freezing rain if some of the warmer models verify.
Snow will eventually return later Saturday and into Sunday as a hybrid of lingering precipitation behind the storm and lake effect. Light snow accumulations are likely Saturday and Sunday as a result.
Obviously, there are still many uncertainties with the forecast for Friday and the weekend. It remains too early to be confident in any given solution shown on the models. At this point, nothing should be discounted completely.
Much of next week looks quieter with a lack of significant weather systems in the region. Temperatures will cool, and there could be several days with below average highs in the upper 20s and low 30s later in the week.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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