Active Weather Saturday
The weather on Friday will be quiet, but an active weekend is ahead, especially when it comes to wind.
A cold front that moved through yesterday has stalled out across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic regions. This front will be close enough to keep our skies cloudy today, but far enough away that precipitation will stay well south of the area.
Light north and northwest winds will blow, and temperatures will be a bit cooler than they have been so far this week. Look for highs today in the low and mid 40s.
The front will begin to lift northward tonight as low pressure strengthens and lifts northeast over Missouri and Illinois. By Saturday morning, the center of the low should be near Chicago, but the front will be moving north through Pennsylvania.
Precipitation will move into the Finger Lakes just before sunrise Saturday morning and will continue for several hours into the late morning. Especially early on, mixed precipitation is likely in the Finger Lakes.
Snow, freezing rain, and non-freezing rain will be the most likely precipitation types. The best chance for a coating or inch of snow will be for areas further north and east. Freezing rain is more likely in the higher elevations of Central New York and the Southern Tier. Typically, warmer areas in the valleys and especially near the lakes will see little to no wintry precipitation.
All in all, it is the type of setup we have grown accustomed to this winter with large variations from location to location. The good news is that, even for areas that see some snow or ice, the amounts should remain low as precipitation will be quick to exit and will transition over to rain as it does so.
Still, travelers during the morning hours, especially early, should use common sense caution and allow for some extra time to reach their destination.
The rest of the day will have some on-and-off rain showers. A couple of thunderstorms will also be possible, mainly in the mid to late afternoon over the western half of the region. These would just contain some briefly heavier rain and a clap of thunder or two.
Temperatures will mainly be in the low and mid 40s and may not peak until around or after sunset. The Rochester area will be warmer in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees.
Winds will be strong from the southeast, especially during the midday and afternoon hours. Sustained wind speeds will be 15-20 mph with gusts locally exceeding 45 mph. The winds will lessen during the evening hours as they turn to the southwest. Overnight lows will be in the mid 30s.
Windy Sunday, Uncertain Next Week
By Sunday, the low pressure system will be tracking across eastern Canada on its way out of our area. Strong winds will remain behind it, especially for the morning hours Sunday.
Once the sun rises, the winds will kick back up. These winds will come in from the west and sustained speeds may again be in the 15-20 mph range, if not a little higher for some areas west of Seneca Lake.
Localized gusts could eclipse 50 mph in the Bristol Hills and across Wyoming and Genesee counties. Top gusts elsewhere will mostly be in the 35-45 mph range. Winds will gradually diminish during the afternoon and become light during the night.
Outside of the wind, Sunday will be quiet. Clouds will be plentiful through midday but will depart during the afternoon. The day should end sunny with highs in the mid and upper 40s.
Quiet weather will extend into Monday, but clouds will build back in. High temperatures will remain around the mid 40s. Winds will be light.
The weather is more uncertain towards the middle of next week, but trending towards nothing more than some light rain or snow showers. Tuesday night is one of the more interesting times to watch, with a handful of model ensemble members holding onto the idea for snow.
The chances for snow remain low and are mostly shown under Wednesday’s heading on the snow probability graphic since it is the commute Wednesday morning that would be impacted if these chances increase in the coming days.
Rain and snow showers will also be possible as we head into Thursday.
Temperatures will stick to the 40s through Wednesday but may have a harder time escaping the 30s on Thursday. Some warmer temperatures are likely late in the week and through next weekend.
Another weather system looks likely at some point next weekend with the models overwhelmingly favoring rain at this point.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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