Variable temperatures today due to stalled front

Frontal Boundary

A frontal boundary stretches from east to west across New England, the Great Lakes, and into the Midwest, cutting across the Finger Lakes region.

This front will wobble around today, with a gradual northward lift this morning and early afternoon, before sinking back south late in the day.

Already this morning, the weather is variable across the region. To the north, rain showers continue, left over from the overnight. Across the Southern Tier, however, skies are partly cloudy to mostly clear.

As the front lifts north, so too should the sunnier skies. This will help southern areas warm quickly, while the northern, cloudy areas stay cooler. Most of the rain showers should depart these areas this morning, at least.

A large gradient in temperatures will set up this afternoon, ranging from the mid and upper 40s near Lake Ontario to the mid and upper 60s across the Southern Tier.

Between these two regions, very roughly in line with the northern and southern ends of Cayuga and Seneca Lake, will be changing and variable temperatures. As the temperatures fluctuate, they should reach their high point between 55-65 degrees during the 1-3 PM window.

By sunset, the temperature range across the region will be 45-55 degrees, with most areas within a few degrees of 50 degrees. Some stray showers, or some fog and drizzle, will be possible this evening.

Temperatures will bottom out just before midnight, mostly in the low and mid 40s. From there, the front will lift back to the north and temperatures will start to climb into the 45-55 degrees range by sunrise.

While the front is nearby, winds will be variable but generally light. That will change Wednesday morning as the front shorts northward. Blustery south winds will set up with gusts of 30-40 mph. The highest gusts will be over the higher elevations.

Temperatures will shoot into the 70s for much of the region with dewpoints rising to around 60 degrees. That will be enough to support multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, possibly beginning as early as the mid to late morning and persisting on and off into the evening.

The chances for severe weather are uncertain, but will increase with western extent. The bulk of the severe weather threat will be far to the west over Michigan, Ohio, and Indiana. However, some isolated to scattered damaging winds, a couple instances of some hail, and possibly even a small tornado threat will be possible in our region and especially west of Seneca Lake.

I will, of course, have more information tomorrow morning at the latest.

Cool, then Quiet Weather

Showers will continue off and on Wednesday night as a cold front enters the region from the west. The front will be slow to move through, and temperatures should start Thursday in the upper 50s and low 60s.

The rain may increase for a time Thursday morning before tapering off and ending during the afternoon. A little late day sun may be possible. Temperatures most of the day will be in the lower half of the 50s with generally light west-southwest winds.

Skies will be partly cloudy Thursday night with temperatures falling into the 30s. Some early sun will be possible on Friday, but clouds will quickly develop and remain plentiful for much of the day. Northwest winds will be blustery with speeds to 15 mph and gusts of 35-40 mph. Temperatures will be held to the low and mid 40s.

Skies will clear late, sending temperatures into the 20s Friday night. Saturday will be sunny throughout the day, but temperatures will remain in the mid to perhaps upper 40s. Winds will still be from the northwest but will be much lighter than Friday.

On Easter Sunday, the winds will turn to the south, allowing warmer air back in. Skies will remain sunny with highs in the upper 50s after morning lows in the upper 20s.

Highs should be back in the 60s on Monday with a gradual increase in clouds. Some rain may be possible Monday night into Tuesday. Clouds and rain could hold temperatures down a bit on Tuesday.

Temperatures will warm significantly from there with most of next week seeing highs in the 60s and 70s. A few places could even flirt with 80 degrees at times.

For the most part, it will be dry and sunny as well, with low chances for rain showing on the models at this time. In fact, if trends hold, we could see the brush fire risk rise significantly next week.

More Information:

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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.