Another showery day Monday before a gradual drying out

finger lakes weather forecast monday october 16 2023 cloudy showers
Showers are likely again on Monday before a gradual drying and warming trend that will culminate on Thursday. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Unsettled Early Week Weather

A strong area of low pressure is centered east of Maine, but with the nearest high pressure located over Kansas, the low will continue to exert its influence over our region.

A north-northwest flow of moisture around the low will keep skies cloudy and the weather unsettled across the Finger Lakes.

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Scattered to numerous showers are expected today, especially through the early afternoon hours, and especially over the eastern half of the region. There should be fewer sunny breaks between showers than yesterday, though a brief glimpse of the sun here or there will still be possible.

The wind will be a bit less strong compared to yesterday, with speeds of 5-10 mph and gusts around 20 mph. Temperatures will be a bit warmer, with many areas in the mid 50s and cooler pockets in the low 50s.

Rain showers will diminish this evening, but not completely end. Areas of fog and drizzle will also be possible, persisting into Tuesday morning.

Tuesday should have fewer showers overall and more breaks of sunshine, especially later in the day.

The above surface flow of air will turn to the southwest early Tuesday, though surface winds may linger out of the northwest and west well into Tuesday.

Temperatures will start Tuesday in the mid 40s with a few cooler pockets. Afternoon highs will add on a couple degree to today, with a few pockets of upper 50s and fewer higher elevations sticking to the low 50s.

Wednesday should be primarily dry, outside of perhaps a morning spit of drizzle. However, skies will likely remain mostly cloudy until some late-day clearing.

Winds will be light from the south and southwest, helping nudge temperatures into the upper 50s and low 60s.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast mon oct 16 | mon, numerous showers mid 50 | tues, a few showers mid 50 | wed, mostly cloudy upper 50 | thur, sun and thin clouds mid 60 | fri, scattered showers? low 60 | sat, rain or showers possible mid 50 | sun, rain or showers possible low 50
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Late Week Weather

Southerly flow will keep temperatures in the low and mid 40s Wednesday night despite clearing skies. A new area of thin clouds will start to work in on Thursday.

These clouds will gradually become widespread and thicker, reducing the amount of sunshine filtering through. No rain is expected, though.

Temperatures on Thursday will mark the high point of the week with widespread 60s, even in higher elevations. Some of the typically warmer areas through the northern Finger Lakes will probably sneak into the upper 60s.

The next weather system will move in sometime between Friday and Sunday, possibly impacting all three days. Forecast confidence is low for this period.

As it currently stands, Friday should have some scattered showers, but will not be a total washout. The later in the day it gets, the greater the chances for rain. Temperatures will likely remain elevated, but not as warm as Thursday, with highs in the low 60s.

The chances for steady and heavy rain go up on Saturday, though it is far from a certainty. Temperatures will likely drop back into the 50s as low pressure ramps up somewhere along the northeast coast, pulling cooler air back into the region.

Sunday is a similar story, with at least a chance for steady rain or widespread showers. Temperatures will continue to fall.

The fine details of the weekend are still several days away from resolving, so it is not time to cancel any plans… but continue to monitor the forecast if you have outdoor plans.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.