Weekend Weather Forecast
A classic springtime frontal boundary with set up over the region this weekend resulting in huge variations in temperature and rapid swings between warm and cold.
These types of setups tend to happen a couple times each spring and are nearly impossible to pinpoint due to the sharp divide between nearly opposite air masses.
The front will start to take shape today with light south winds to the south of I-90, while to the north, winds will be more easterly or northeasterly.
This set up will keep areas north of the Thruway in the 40s today, with low 40s possible along the immediate shore of Lake Ontario. South of the Thruway, most areas should be in the low 50s. Some of the typically warmer areas like Dansville and Elmira should see mid 50s.
Clouds will increase and thicken through the day, with scattered showers arriving in the late afternoon. Rain will become more widespread in the evening with some embedded downpours possible.
The front will intensify during the overnight as temperatures rise behind the rain for areas south of the Thruway. By early Saturday morning, many of these areas will be between 55-60 degrees, while to the north, 40s will remain.
Little overall change in frontal position is expected Saturday morning. To the south, temperatures will rise into the 60s with some 70s even possible in the Southern Tier. North of the Thruway, 40s will remain locked in place.
Saturday afternoon becomes even more interesting as the front starts to push south. Areas along the shore of Lake Ontario will drop into the 30s while the Southern Tier is simultaneously pushing 70 degrees still.
In between, temperatures will start to drop from north to south. Some locations may see rather sudden and significant drops, while others will see a slower, steadier fall.
By the early evening, the front will hang up around the southern tips of the Finger Lakes. Much of the area will be in the 40s or 50s, but 60s will remain possible across the Southern Tier while shoreline areas fall to the low and mid 30s.
Scattered rain showers will be possible throughout Saturday, though there should be plenty of dry time. Some sun is likely to the south. Late in the day and during the evening, there may even be some freezing rain across Monroe, Wayne, and far northern Cayuga County.
The front will remain nearly stationary through Saturday night, then start to push back north Sunday morning, making more progress than it does tonight and early Saturday.
Afternoon highs Sunday have a shot at hitting 60 degrees as far north as the I-90 corridor, and even the shore of Lake Ontario should see 50s. Again, a few of the warmer valleys to the south could push 70 degrees.
Rain showers are likely on Sunday on and off throughout the day. Some periods of steadier rain are also possible. Like everything this weekend, though, it all depends on exactly where the front is at any given time.
Weather Next Week
The most widespread warmth will build in Sunday night and Monday. Nighttime temperatures will stick near 60 degrees with mid and upper 60s during the midday and early afternoon.
A cold front will move through during the afternoon with showers and thunderstorms. The potential for some strong thunderstorms with damaging winds will need to be monitored.
Temperatures will quickly fall late in the day and through Monday night. Most areas will end up in the mid and upper 20s with clearing skies Monday night.
Tuesday will be sunny but chilly. Most areas will be in the mid to perhaps upper 30s. Winds will be blustery early in the day, but nearly calm by day’s end.
The cold air will not stick around. Temperatures should be into the upper 40s Wednesday afternoon.
A warm front will bring late rain showers on Wednesday and into Wednesday night. Temperatures will rise back into the upper 40s overnight, if not warmer.
Thursday will push toward the 60s once again with showers and perhaps a couple thunderstorms as another cold front moves though.
Some models hold the front off until Friday, in which case, there could be even warmer temperatures before the fall. Or Friday could end up cooler. The European model ensembles show anywhere from low 80s to mid 30s for Friday afternoon. It is anyone’s guess this far out.
A cooler pattern is likely to establish itself eventually, with highs in the 30s and 40s favored at this point for the following week.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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