Early Week Rain Chances
After a couple of hot, but not too humid days, an influx of moisture will make it feel much muggier across the Finger Lakes.
A broad, disorganized area of unsettled weather over the Ohio Valley is creeping northeastward this morning. Some clouds out ahead of this area are just starting to enter into the Finger Lakes.
Skies will be a mix of sun and clouds throughout today. As the extra humidity builds in, a few scattered showers and thunderstorms will pop up this afternoon. The activity is not expected to become widespread, so some areas will undoubtedly stay dry this afternoon, but some small disorganized clusters may develop.
For those that do see rain, some brief heavy downpours will be possible. However, the storms should move along fast enough to prevent any flood concerns. Upper atmosphere support for severe weather is non-existent, so that is not a concern either.
The best chance for storms seems to be during the mid and late afternoon hours. Activity will quickly weaken as the sun sets, though showers will continue to be possible into the evening and overnight.
Temperatures will be hot again today, though not quite as hot as the weekend. A few areas will probably hit 90 degrees, but most of the region will be in the mid and upper 80s. Dewpoints will push uncomfortably in the mid and upper 60s.
Overnight temperatures will be in the upper 60s and low 70s thanks to the humidity, clouds, and showers. Dewpoints will increase further for Tuesday, reaching the low 70s, making the air feel soupy and heavy.
Another wave of energy will move into the region, though its timing is a bit uncertain. Regardless, rain will be possible at any time tomorrow. The main question will be whether afternoon thunderstorms fire up as well. Heavy rain will be the primary threat from any thunderstorms.
Temperatures will be cooler thanks to the clouds and showers, but with the humidity, the relief will be limited. Look for highs in the upper 70s and low 80s.
Wednesday will continue to be humid with dewpoints hovering around 70 degrees. With less to trigger showers and storms, temperatures will reach the low and mid 80s.
There will be a few scattered showers and thunderstorms. The chances for rain look lower than either today or tomorrow, though.
Late Week Weather and Beyond
By Thursday, the pattern will begin to shift as a high pressure system builds into eastern Canada and becomes the primary influence in our weather.
This high will shift our air flow to the northeast, allowing cooler and less humid air to move in from eastern Canada.
Currently, this push of fresh air is expected to move through Thursday morning. A few showers may accompany the shift, especially across the southwestern corner of the Finger Lakes region.
There is some uncertainty in how successful this influx of new air will be, though. It may end up that the northeastern half of the Finger Lakes has dewpoints in the 50s or even 40s Thursday afternoon, while the southwestern half remains in the 60s.
Temperatures will depend on cloud cover and showers. If there are more clouds and showers, highs will be in the mid and upper 70s. More sun, and highs should be in the low and mid 80s.
Friday will have a similar set up and similar uncertainties. Showers will be in the area, but exactly where and how many remains uncertain. This in turn impacts the temperature forecast, making for a low confidence forecast at this stage.
Next weekend may still have some rain in the area, but the chances look lower than most days this week. Temperatures should stay in the vicinity of the upper 70s or low 80s.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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