Heat, thunderstorms back in the forecast this week

finger lakes weather forecast monday july 5 2021 hot unsettled
Today will be the hottest day of the week underneath sunshine filtered by wildfire smoke. Unsettled weather will be in place most of the rest of the week. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Starting Hot

For the most part, the upcoming week will be on the unsettled and stormy side, but today will start things off with some heat.

High pressure off the East Coast and a low north of the Upper Great Lakes will result in an increasing southwesterly wind today. Wind speeds will top out near 10 mph this afternoon with gusts to 20 mph. Stronger winds are likely downwind of Lake Erie for areas such as Batavia and Rochester.

Skies will have few clouds today, though some passing thin clouds and a few small fair weather cumulus clouds will be possible from time to time. The sunshine will also be dimmed ever so slightly by some wildfire smoke from central Canada.

Temperatures should break into the low 90s across the typically warmer areas of the northern Finger Lakes, including Rochester and Geneva. Other lower elevations and urban areas will be near 90, while higher elevations will be in the mid and upper 80s.

Dewpoints will increase today but should near or under 60 degrees much of the day. That should keep the heat index very close to the actual temperature.

Tonight, southwest winds will persist and clouds will increase. A few showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder will drop south across Lake Ontario near or after midnight. This area of rain will be dissipating, so the further south, the lower the chances for rain.

Temperatures will mostly stick near or above 70 degrees through the overnight. That will get Tuesday off to a running start, with widespread 80s by the midday hours.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday july 5 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Unsettled Pattern

A few showers and thunderstorms will pop up Tuesday afternoon. The activity is expected to remain quite scattered with the southern half of the region seeing the best chances for rain.

Because of the increase in clouds and the scattered showers and a shift in the wind to the west, temperatures will top out in the low and mid 80s. A few areas in the northern Finger Lakes could see upper 80s, especially if the rain primarily sticks to the southern half of the region.

The west winds will become blustery with speeds of 10-15 mph and gusts as high as 35 mph. The best chance for those highest wind gusts will be over higher terrain.

Temperatures will slide back into the upper 60s Tuesday night. Wednesday will start off with sun and clouds as temperatures again quickly rise as winds turn back to the southwest. Highs should again peak in the low and mid 80s.

Afternoon showers and storms will develop throughout the region. A couple isolated storms could become strong to severe with gusty winds or some small hail. Winds aloft are not overly strong, so a more organized, robust severe event is not expected.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be likely on Thursday. Again, the chances for widespread severe storms looks low, but like early last week, there will be enough fuel for storms that a couple could have brief severe characteristics.

High temperatures will be held in check by the clouds and rain, reaching the mid 70s on Thursday.

An area of high pressure will build in for Friday and Saturday. A few stray showers will still be possible, especially early Friday. Highs Friday will be in the upper 70s while Saturday sees most places near 80 degrees.

Rain and thunderstorms will become more likely again on Sunday and Monday next week with unsettled conditions possibly lingering into Tuesday.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday july 5 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys and also run a goat milk soap business, Ye Olde Goat Cart. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.