Week starts chilly but eases up quickly

finger lakes weather forecast monday february 14 2022 sun clouds flurries cold
By Wednesday, temperatures should be back into the 40s with even warmer air on Thursday ahead of a cold front. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Early Week Weather

Cold air has settled back into the Finger Lakes for the start of this week, but warmer air will nudge its way back in before too long.

Light northwest winds are helping the cold remain in place with high pressure drifting through the Ohio Valley. This high pressure will strengthen as it moves overnight tonight and tomorrow and will not make it substantially to our east until Tuesday night.

Northwest winds will remain in place through the day, increasing to around 10 mph during the late morning and afternoon hours. The wind will become more southwesterly tonight before turning back to the northwest tomorrow morning.

These fluctuations in wind direction will mostly have an impact on the presence of some limited lake effect flurries. While winds are out of the northwest, scattered snow showers will be possible, especially in the northern Finger Lakes. This will be the case both today and tomorrow, while tonight, there should be no snow.

These snow showers should have minimal impact with only a fluffy coating of accumulation for some areas. Outside of the snow showers, some sun will shine.

High temperatures today will be hard-pressed to make it to 15 degrees, though much of the area should get close. Higher elevations will be near 10 degrees or in the low 10s.

The wind shift tonight will help prop temperatures up slightly, as will some occasional passing clouds. Temperatures may still dip just below zero across roughly the southern half of the region, while the northern half stays just above zero.

Tuesday will warm more than today as the core of the cold air mass breaks down. Highs should reach the low and mid 20s.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday february 14 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Warmer Weather

South winds will pick up Tuesday night as the high pressure moves into New England. By Wednesday morning, gusts may be over 30 mph, especially in higher elevations.

Temperatures will initially drop to around 10 degrees Tuesday evening but will rise to the low and mid 20s by dawn Wednesday. Some sun will shine through thin clouds Wednesday morning. Ultimately, the clouds will thicken up and block much of the sun. This could happen as soon as midday Wednesday.

Nonetheless, south winds will continue to blow at speeds near 15 mph with gusts over 30 mph, even at lower elevations. Higher terrain could gust to 40 mph.

This will push temperatures mostly into the low 40s, though mid 40s will be possible near and north of the Thruway, and along and west of I-390 between Rochester and Dansville.

Temperatures will rise a couple more degrees Wednesday night with blustery south winds persisting. The wind combined with temperatures in the 40s should provide a decent amount of snowmelt.

Winds will decrease on Thursday but temperatures will continue to rise. Highs will be in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees for many areas.

Rain showers will begin to move in later Thursday. The timing of these showers may have some impact on how warm it gets.

The rain will be ahead of a cold front that will move through Thursday night. As temperatures drop rapidly along the front, rain will turn to snow, possibly with a brief period of ice during the transition.

By Friday morning, temperatures should be into the 20s as snow quickly comes to an end with only minor accumulations. Temperatures may fall a couple more degrees during the day. Skies will turn sunny and be mostly clear Friday night.

This will allow temperatures to fall into the single digits Friday night, but they may warm back to the 10s by sunrise Saturday. This will be caused by a shift in the wind to the south ahead of a quick-moving system that will spread a few snow showers in on Saturday.

This snow is not expected to have much impact. Highs will reach around 30 degrees and skies will clear again Saturday night.

Sunday will start in the single digits, but sun-filled skies should help a rebound to afternoon highs approaching 40.

Temperatures generally look to be near or above average next week, though the first half of the week looks warmer than the second half.

More Information:

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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.