High pressure centered north of the Great Lakes extends southeastward into the Finger Lakes this morning while a large storm system is taking shape across the middle of the nation.
The high pressure has skies mostly clear across the area this morning. However, thin clouds out ahead of the storm system are widespread through the Upper Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley.
The high will do its best to block the northeastward progress of this storm system, but it will ultimately give up its ground. The thin clouds should gradually make their way into our area today, filtering the sunshine this afternoon.
With the high centered to our northwest, the clockwise flow of air around the high will dictate north-northwest winds today. Wind speeds will be lighter than yesterday, clocking in around 5 mph with some gusts over 20 mph, mostly east of Seneca Lake.
The north winds will keep temperatures close to the climatological average and cooler than yesterday. Highs will average out to the mid 40s, though a few higher elevations in Central New York and the Lake Ontario shoreline will be in the low 40s, and areas along the NY-PA border may sneak into the upper 40s.
Clouds will continue to thicken tonight, but it should remain dry. Overnight lows will settle in the upper 20s.
Precipitation will start to make its way in on Wednesday, though dry air overhead will make it a struggle. The best chance for some rain will come during the midday and afternoon hours, though it is unlikely to be raining the entire time.
Precipitation will increase Wednesday evening and Wednesday night. Most of what falls should be rain, but the chances for some ice remain, especially in higher elevations of the eastern Finger Lakes. Some of the rain may come down in brief bursts, and a rumble of thunder cannot be totally ruled out, despite temperatures in the 30s and low 40s.
Unsettled Through the Weekend
Precipitation should shift eastward Thursday morning, leaving a chance for some clearing to work in for the afternoon. How much sunshine manages to come out will have an influence on the temperatures.
With south and southwest winds in place, temperatures should make a surge into the low 60s. This warm up will be very brief, though. Low pressure will pass overhead late Thursday, allowing cooler air to wrap around back into the Finger Lakes.
Temperatures will drop to the low 40s Thursday night, then add just a few degrees during the day on Friday. Highs should be in the upper 40s, though some eastern areas could sneak to 50 degrees while western areas stick in the mid 40s.
On and off rain showers will be possible throughout Friday. None of the rain will be overly heavy, but it will be a rather dreary day from start to finish.
Cooler air will continue to filter in on Saturday with lows in the low 30s and highs in the mid 40s. Showers will continue, and some higher elevations will start to see snow mix in.
Snow will become the dominant precipitation type on Sunday as the unsettled weather pattern continues. While it will snow off and on throughout the day, accumulations should be minimal, especially during the daytime hours.
Sunday will also be quite blustery, with gusts over 30 mph commonplace.
Flurries will not taper off until Monday morning when some dry air finally pushes into the region. By then, it will feel quite wintry. After highs in the upper 20s Sunday, Monday will start out in the 10s with highs in the mid 20s, about twenty degrees below the climatological average high.
Temperatures will make a slow recovery back towards the seasonal averages next week.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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