Transitioning to Cold
An area of high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic has Friday off to a sunny start across the Finger Lakes.
However, a large and powerful low pressure is situated north of the Upper Great Lakes and will increase its influence on our region through the day and the weekend.
As these two opposite pressure systems butt up against one another, gusty southwest winds will develop today. The strongest winds will be in the western half of the region this morning, spreading east for the midday and afternoon. Top gusts will be near or above 45 mph for most of the region, but western areas such as Rochester, Geneseo, and Dansville could gust between 50-60 mph.
The southwest winds and morning sunshine will help temperatures rise from the 30s and 40s this morning to the upper 50s and low 60s this afternoon. Accompanying the winds and mild temperatures will be some dry air through the early afternoon with relative humidity values under 30-percent. This will lead to an increased brush fire risk.
Cloud will gradually increase, though, and a few showers may even skirt across the area late this afternoon. This will be the result of a cold front associated with the low pressure system that will sag southward tonight into Saturday.
For this evening, most of the rain will be in the northwestern quadrant of the region. Precipitation will spread southeast through the overnight. For much of the northern half of the region, the precipitation will mix with or turn over to snow.
Snow will spread southeast Saturday morning and could come down steadily for a couple hours, leading to some slushy, minor accumulation on the grass. As precipitation winds down in the afternoon, it should change back over to rain as temperatures nose their way into the low and mid 40s.
Scattered snow showers will develop Saturday evening and persist into Sunday morning. Again, a localized coating of snow will be possible. Sunday afternoon, the precipitation should end, and some sun should eventually work its way out.
Temperatures on Easter Sunday should start in the mid and upper 20s with afternoon highs in the low and mid 40s. Steady northwest winds will blow throughout the day with gusts occasionally as high as 35 mph.
More Snow Chances
The weather will start to make a rebound on Monday, but it will be nothing more than a deception.
Morning sunshine will help temperatures push into the low 50s. Clouds will increase during the afternoon as low pressure develops to the south. This low will ride along the coast Monday night and slowly depart on Tuesday.
Temperatures will quickly drop late Monday, leading to rain and snow showers by the early evening hours. Areas of rain and snow will persist through the night and may mostly turn to snow at times. Some of the precipitation will come down heavily.
By Tuesday morning, some higher elevations, especially in Central New York, could see several inches of snow. The chances for widespread accumulations across all elevations remains a small but unlikely possibility.
This will be a very uncertain event with a razor-thin division in temperatures having vastly different results. Hopefully, the details will become clearer over the weekend.
The heavy precipitation looks as though it will mostly clear out by Tuesday morning, but rain and snow showers will linger throughout the day. Blustery west winds will also be commonplace.
Behind this system, the weather looks as though it will settle for a while. Mostly dry conditions are expected, though a few stray showers will be possible on Thursday.
Temperatures will be slow to recover, with upper 40s on Wednesday and near-average highs in the mid 50s on Thursday and Friday.
Warmer weather still looks possible starting next weekend and continuing into the end of April. The uncertainty has trended smaller and warmer since yesterday, but it is still too early and too uncertain to feel highly confident in another warm surge.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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