Rain and Thunder
As a broad area of unsettled weather sits overtop the area, a low pressure system is moving into New England.
While the direct precipitation associated with the low will stay well to our east, the ripple effect of its presence should lead to another afternoon of showers and thunderstorms, perhaps more numerous than even the last two days.
Through this morning, skies should be mostly cloudy with just a few sunny breaks late in the morning. A few stray spits of rain and some lingering fog will also be possible, especially early on.
By the early afternoon, rain and thunderstorms will begin to develop. Like the last couple of days, the models cannot be overly relied upon for timing, placement, or the number of storms. Given that each of the last two days, the models seemed to underestimate the storms, it seems probable that a wet afternoon is ahead.
That being said, there will probably still be several areas that see no rain at all, and more that get just missed by heavier rains. On the flip side, some localized downpours will be possible. The storms should move quicker than they have this week, which should reduce the chance of excessive rain.
With the low to our northeast, precipitation today will move from north to south, or northeast to southwest. The atypical east to west motion of the last couple of days was the result of a weak easterly flow between high pressure to the north and lower pressure to the south.
For temperatures, the north-northeasterly flow combined with the clouds should keep most areas from reaching 80 degrees. Mid and upper 70s will be common, with the highs ultimately depending on how the rain evolves. Surface winds will remain light with speeds under 5 mph.
Most of the precipitation will die off in the early evening, like the last few nights. Patchy fog will develop, especially in any areas that see some clearing. Lows will be in the upper half of the 50s to perhaps low 60s.
A few stray showers will remain possible, especially towards dawn and into Thursday morning. Showers will increase by the late morning and early afternoon. The rain tomorrow should remain in small, individual cells. These will move steadily from northwest to southeast, courtesy of the low pressure system tracking further east.
The rain on Thursday should be much less widespread and will last a much shorter time than any other day this week so far.
High temperatures on Thursday will be in the upper 70s. A few places will probably reach 80 degrees.
Weekend Weather and Beyond
If you are looking for a dry day with no rain chances, Friday is your day. The New England low will be out of the picture and a small bubble of high pressure will build in. Expect plenty of sunshine and warming temperatures with highs in the 80-85 degree range.
Temperatures will continue to climb on Saturday. After morning lows in the low 60s, afternoon highs will push towards the upper 80s. A few places may be able to hit 90 degrees, while higher elevations stick to the mid 80s.
After comfortable dewpoints in the 50s on Friday, Saturday will see humidity increase with dewpoints into the 60s. The heat and humidity may touch off a few scattered afternoon showers and storms.
This will mark the beginning of another period of pop-up showers and storms in an environment with ill-defined surface features. Confidence in the nitty-gritty details will be low into next week.
Sunday and Monday should have highs in the mid 80s before showers and thunderstorms bubble up. The precipitation looks hit or miss at this time.
Rain chances may increase towards Tuesday and Wednesday next week as a low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes and through the Finger Lakes. This system should set high back closer to 80 degrees.
More unsettled weather is expected late next week and into the weekend. Temperatures will probably continue to be in the upper 70s and low 80s, but could get warmer if precipitation is less.
While the hit-or-miss nature of the precipitation many of these days will undoubtedly leave some areas still in the throes of drought, the overall wetter pattern is certainly good news for the broad-scale rainfall deficit.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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