Widespread rain and thunderstorms this afternoon

finger lakes weather forecast tuesday august 30 2022 cloudy rain thunderstorms downpours
Many areas will see at least a half-inch of rain this afternoon with localized pockets over an inch. [Photo by Wendy Bandurski]

Locally Heavy Rain

A cold front will move through the region today, interacting with a moisture-laden atmosphere to produce widespread precipitation.

Skies are mostly cloudy throughout the Finger Lakes this morning, though a few breaks of sunshine will be possible through the morning hours. A stray shower cannot be ruled out, but for the most part, it should stay dry until around noon.

Southwest winds will blow at 5-10 mph, pushing a local maximum of atmospheric moisture toward our region. Temperatures will rise, though there is some uncertainty how warm it will get due to the interaction of the cloud cover and the arrival of the rain. Upper 70s and low 80s are the most likely temperatures for a midday daily maximum.

Rain will spread in from the southwest during the midday and early afternoon hours. The rain should quickly become widespread with embedded clusters of thunderstorms. Many areas may see several hours of rain, especially if the thunderstorms remain on the weaker, disorganized side.

There is a chance for a few of the storm clusters to become better organized, particularly over the eastern half of the region. This could lead to a localized wind damage risk and could lead to a quicker end to the rainfall. On the flip side, any thunderstorms will be able to tap into the high moisture content and produce high rainfall rates.

Either way, much of the region should get beneficial rainfall today. There will be a range in rainfall amounts, as usual. On the low side, a few pockets may only see around a quarter of an inch. On the high side, as much as two inches could be possible. Most will probably end up in the one-half to one-inch range.

The rain should move east during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Stray showers will linger behind the primary area of rain, lasting through the night and into early Wednesday. Overnight temperatures should fall into the mid and upper 50s with a few pockets remaining at or just above 60 degrees.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast tuesday august 30 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Up and Down Temperatures

Wednesday will likely have a mix of sunny periods and cloudier ones. Moisture lingering behind today’s rain may keep some clouds, fog, and spits of rain in the area early in the day. The sun should then come out for a while, boosting temperatures into the mid 70s.

Winds will be blustery, coming in from the west at or above 10 mph. Top gusts will be 25-30 mph.

Late in the afternoon, a broken band of showers may drop south across Lake Ontario and into the region ahead of a secondary cold front. A few rumbles of thunder may also be possible. If the showers survive the sun setting, they may make their way into the southern half of the region.

The front will move through sometime between midnight and the dawn of Thursday. The speed of the front will influence how far temperatures drop, but lows should be down into the 50s.

Northwest winds will blow at around 10 mph on Thursday, importing some chilly air. Highs will only manage the mid and upper 60s. A few lake effect rain showers will be likely southeast of Lake Ontario., mostly during the morning hours. Otherwise, sunshine will mix with plenty of fair-weather clouds.

Winds will be nearly calm on Friday as high pressure passes overhead with mostly sunny skies. The morning will be chilly with 40s and 50s for lows, but the afternoon will bounce back with highs in the upper 70s.

Saturday will be warmer as a south wind kicks in. Morning lows will be in the upper 50s while afternoon highs push well into the 80s.

A weak cold front will drop south through the region on Sunday with a few stray showers or storms. This will knock temperatures back to the low 80s on Sunday with 70s on Monday and throughout most of next week.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast tuesday august 30 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.