Meandering Low Pressure
A strong area of low pressure passed by to our east yesterday and is now located due north of the Finger Lakes along the NY-Canada border.
This low will continue to strengthen a bit more today as it turns westward and settles over the Upper Great Lakes. It will then meander around the region through Wednesday before finally departing via the Atlantic Ocean late in the week.
With the low remaining in the neighborhood for quite some time, cool, unsettled weather will be the rule for much of this week. Each day will have its own subtleties to make it unique, though.
For today, the Finger Lakes are starting out in an area of drier air. Only a few stray showers exist, and some sun is poking through the clouds. Temperatures are mostly in the low and mid 40s, but a few pockets of 30s are also showing up, especially in the western Southern Tier.
By the late morning hours, showers will be popping up and will continue to do so throughout the afternoon. Individual showers will be short-lived, but conditions will be favorable for some small hail or graupel. All in all, the pattern looks similar to last Monday.
Temperatures will be warmest across Wayne, northern Cayuga, and northern Onondaga counties, as well as in the broad valleys of the Southern Tier between Elmira and Binghamton. Mid 50s are likely in these areas.
The coolest air will be in the western Southern Tier, where Wyoming and Allegany counties will have widespread mid 40s, as will some of the higher elevations of Livingston, western Ontario, and Steuben counties.
A stiff southwest wind will also blow today with speeds of 10-15 mph and gusts as high as 35 mph.
The small, individual showers will dissipate late in the afternoon, but some broader areas of light rain will build in to replace them this evening. Snow will mix in or take over in the higher elevations of the western Southern Tier and some places could see a light coating of accumulation on grassy surfaces.
Another lull in the activity is expected during the overnight hours, allowing temperatures to fall to the mid and upper 30s.
Numerous showers are expected to develop again during Tuesday morning, with plenty of precipitation around the region during the daytime hours. Individual cells are less likely, instead favoring larger conglomerates of rain that may last an hour or two at a time. Hail will be less likely.
Highs on Tuesday will mostly be below 50 degrees with mid and upper 40s common. The best chance for reaching 50 degrees will be around Syracuse, and between Owego and Binghamton. Some higher elevations may not get out of the low 40s.
The most widespread precipitation of the week is expected during the predawn and early morning hours on Wednesday. With temperatures in the mid and upper 30s, broad areas of rain-snow mix, or just plain snow, will be possible around sunrise. Again, a light coating on some grassy surfaces will be possible, but nothing more.
Most of the snow will gradually transition to rain Wednesday morning. There is a chance for a lull in the precipitation Wednesday afternoon, though some stray showers will continue to be possible. High temperatures Wednesday will be similar to Tuesday with most areas in the mid and upper 40s.
Winds Tuesday and Wednesday will not be overly strong, with southwest winds of 5-10 mph on Tuesday and northwest winds up to 5 mph on Wednesday.
Recovering Weather Pattern
By Thursday, low pressure will be out over the Atlantic and the weather will start to settle down.
There will still be some pop up showers on Thursday, starting in the mid to late morning and continuing into the afternoon. However, these showers should be more scattered than the rest of the week up to this point, and some areas may escape the day with little to no rain.
Temperatures will start to creep upwards with highs in the low 50s. North-northwest winds of 5-10 mph will blow, and the sun should poke out between showers.
Quiet weather is expected Thursday night, which will allow temperatures to drop back into the mid 30s.
Friday will be similar, but probably with even fewer scattered showers around. Any rain that falls Friday should be light and brief with several areas, especially in the west, not seeing any rain.
North winds will blow at up to 10 mph on Friday, preventing temperatures from getting beyond the mid 50s.
Finally, as we head into the weekend, the chances for rain will disappear and temperatures will start to return to near-average levels.
Saturday morning will still be chilly, with mid 30s likely thanks to clearing skies. Afternoon highs should be around 60 degrees with a mix of sun and daytime-heating fair-weather clouds.
Sunday will be warmer with at least mid 60s and plenty of sun.
Next week looks mild with highs mostly near average in the 60s, though some warmer days are not out of the question. There will be some chances for rain, but pinpointing exact details of when and how much is not possible at this point.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.