Breezy and mild ahead of another frontal passage

finger lakes weather forecast wednesday october 21 2020 cold front mild showers
Mild temperatures will precede an afternoon cold front, but more warm weather is expected before the weekend. [Photo by Pam VanGelder]

Showers with a Few Rumbles

An area of low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will track northeast into eastern Canada today, dragging a cold front through the region.

Rain ahead of this cold front is clipping the northwestern Finger Lakes this morning, but it mostly moving along its axis to the northeast. Therefore, if it is not already raining in your neighborhood this morning, the chances for seeing rain are lower.

Still, a slight eastward progression can be expected before this rain breaks up and dissipates. The further southeast in the region, the better the chances for a completely dry morning.

In the wake of this first area of rain, some breaks of sunshine will be possible. Blustery south winds will gust between 25-35 mph and temperatures will push into the low and mid 70s.

A band of showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder will develop this afternoon as the front moves east into the area. This rain should not last too long, and severe thunderstorms are not expected.

By sunset, only a few lingering showers will be in the area, mostly east of a Syracuse-Elmira line. Clouds, along with some fog and drizzle, will remain in place overnight with temperatures in the mid and upper 40s.

The front will stall out near the NY-PA state line for tomorrow, keeping our region on the cool side. Clouds will be plentiful, though some sunshine should poke through from time to time. A stray shower cannot totally be ruled out.

Temperatures will mostly be in the upper 50s, but the counties that border Pennsylvania will see a north-south temperature gradient through the 60s.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wednesday october 21 2020
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Weekend Fluctuations

South winds will pick back up Thursday night, causing the front to dissipate and allowing warm air to surge back to the north.

Friday’s winds will be similar to today with 25-35 mph gusts. Skies will be a mix of sun and clouds, and temperatures will be mild. Look for afternoon highs to range through the 70s with the warmest readings near Rochester.

Temperatures will stay near or above 60 most of Friday night, but a front will move through just before dawn, knocking temperatures back. Most of Saturday will be spent in the mid and upper 40s with just a few locations at or above 50 degrees.

This front will bring some light rain showers early Saturday morning, but these should mostly dissipate before the midday hours. Clouds will remain thick throughout the day.

Partial clearing Saturday night will lead to pockets of frost as temperatures drop back into the 30s and low 40s.

There will be a small window for some sun Sunday morning before new clouds stream in from the southwest. A few rain showers cannot be ruled out in the afternoon, mostly west of Canandaigua Lake.

Sunday’s highs will be in the low 50s with upper 40s in higher elevations.

Monday has a better chance for rain as the next weather system rolls through. The low pressure center of this system should pass to our west, then north, allowing for temperatures to return to the 60s on Monday.

However, behind this system, a prolonged period of significant colder weather is expected for the end of October and early November. Most days during this stretch will probably end up having highs in the 40s, though there will of course be warmer…and possibly colder…days mixed in.

More Information:

» Finger Lakes Weather Radar

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Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys and also run a goat milk soap business, Ye Olde Goat Cart. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.