A broad area of low pressure is spinning over the Lower Great Lakes and will only drift eastward gradually today.
A wave of energy rotating around the low is bringing numerous showers and a few heavier downpours to the Finger Lakes already this morning. Rain will continue off and on throughout the day.
As this initial batch lifts north-northeast this morning, additional showers and thunderstorms will bubble up during the midday and afternoon hours. Some of the cells will form into small clusters. Some of these could be slow moving, especially over the western half of the region, closer to the center of low pressure.
The result will be highly variable rain totals today. Yes, there will probably be a few isolated pockets that manage to see very little rain. However, most areas should see between a quarter and three-quarters of an inch. On the high side, pockets of an inch or more are likely, with isolated amounts over two inches possible.
There will be a small chance for some minor poor drainage flooding, and a minimal, outside chance for moderate, localized flash flooding. For most areas, though, the rain will be welcome and beneficial and not problematic.
High temperatures today will make it to the mid 70s with generally light winds.
Showers will linger into the evening hours, but will be more scattered and less intense. These will gradually diminish overnight. Overnight lows will fall to the low 60s.
On Tuesday, the low will pick up speed as it heads east. On its backside, another area of showers is expected Tuesday morning into the early afternoon. A few downpours are possible, but more areas will also get missed by much of the rain. A few lingering, isolated showers will be possible behind this main area into the later afternoon and early evening hours.
Temperatures tomorrow will be cool with highs in the low to perhaps mid 70s. Northwest winds will pick up with speeds of 5-10 mph and a few gusts as high as 20 mph.
Drying Out, but Not Completely
By Wednesday, the low should be far enough to the east that it will lose its influence over the region. A stray shower popping up in the afternoon cannot be ruled out, but for the most part, it looks like a dry day with sun mixing with clouds.
Thursday, too, looks sunny and dry as high pressure moves through the area. Temperatures will rebound for both days, with highs around 80 degrees on Wednesday and into the low 80s on Thursday.
On Friday, a cold front will quickly move through the region. Scattered showers will be possible along the front. How many showers form and how intense they get will depend on the timing of the front.
Highs Friday will also depend on the timing of the front but should be around the upper 70s. Mid 70s are likely on Saturday in the wake of the front with a mix of sun and clouds.
A few more showers will be possible on Sunday, though this remains quite uncertain at this time. A better chance for rain will come towards next Tuesday and Wednesday as another cold front moves through the region.
Temperatures should remain in the 70s and low 80s for the rest of August and into early September.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.